A "Primavera" egípcia prejudicou a economia

Economic growth has softened, the fiscal and balance-of-payments deficits have deteriorated, and foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a critical minimum level. Two years after the Arab Spring uprising, Egyptians – many of whom are living below the poverty line – are still waiting to reap the full benefits of lasting social, political and economic change. Egypt has potential both for structural transformation towards a more productive economy and for optimal use of its immense resource wealth, provided that vital policy reforms are introduced. Overview After toppling Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, Egyptians celebrated the election of Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi on 24 June 2012, as the country’s first democratically elected president. A new constitution, drafted by an Islamist-dominated assembly and narrowly approved in mid-December 2012 by voters, has dramatically divided the country. A new parliament is expected to be in place later in 2013, following elections starting in April to replace the Islamist-dominated body that was dissolved by the Supreme Constitutional Court in June 2012. As Egyptians wait to complete the transition to democratic government, they still face a number of challenges. The real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fell to 2.2% in the fiscal year ending June 2012, down from 5.1% in 2009/10, before the revolution. Continued political instability has undermined inflows from tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI). Economic growth is expected to remain depressed, at about 2% as of June 2013. Delay in agreement about USD 4.8 billion in financing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which would be subject to conditions to increase taxes and reform subsidies and public employment, has pushed Egypt to the verge of a full-blown currency crisis. By end-January 2013, the Egyptian pound (EGP) had depreciated by over 12.5% of its value since the uprising. The market expects the pound to depreciate further, to between EGP 7 and EGP 7.50 to the US dollar, and a black foreign exchange market is emerging. In June 2012, Egypt’s domestic debt and fiscal deficit reached 80.3% and 10.8% of GDP respectively, narrowing the room for fiscal manoeuvre. Poverty remains high, with 25.2% of the population living on less than USD 1.5 per day in 2010/11. The illiteracy rate is high at 27%, and there are wide income disparities. The Egyptian statistical agency reported that unemployment was 12.5% in the third quarter of 2012, although several sources indicate that the unemployment rate may actually be above 18%. Over 3.3 million Egyptians are unemployed, while the unemployment rate for 20- to 24-year-olds is 46.4%. The government is working to address several of the structural and institutional problems that beset Egypt. It has developed a home-grown programme to reform the inefficient energy subsidy system and is promoting policies to fight corruption, foster societal inclusion and enhance equality of opportunity. However, the government’s reluctance to accept the IMF conditions before the elections of April 2013 reflects the difficulty of implementing necessary but unpopular entitlement reforms in a heavily divided society. -- African Economic Outlook

São Tomé espera petróleo em 2016

Como pequeno Estado insular, São Tomé e Príncipe enfrenta constrangimentos geográficos e desafios económicos que condicionam as suas perspectivas de desenvolvimento. Em 2011, a economia cresceu 4,9% impulsionada pelos sectores da construção e obras públicas, transportes e pequeno comércio mas, em 2012, segundo as estimativas, o crescimento caiu para cerca de 4,0%, devido principalmente à redução do consumo, quer privado quer público. São Tomé e Príncipe dispõe de um enorme potencial para se tronar um país de rendimento médio, com base na sua dimensão e no seu PIB per capita, se conseguir uma gestão eficiente e transparente da sua riqueza em recursos naturais, evitando assim a chamada maldição dos recursos naturais. Visão global A economia de São Tomé e Príncipe cresceu 4,9% em 2011, que compara com 4,5% em 2010. O crescimento foi impulsionado pelos setores de serviços, transportes, construção e obras públicas e comércio a retalho. Em 2012, registou-se um ligeiro decréscimo na taxa de crescimento para 4,0%, em resultado de uma redução do investimento directo estrangeiro (IDE) e do consumo privado e público. O crescimento real do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) deverá ser de 5,2% em 2013 e de 5,8% em 2014, graças a um aumento do IDE, a prémios de assinatura de contractos petrolíferos e à implementação de grandes projectos nacionais de infraestruturas, com destaque para o porto de águas profundas. Alpha No plano orçamental, a prioridade foi colocada na consolidação das contas públicas, de modo a permitir a obtenção das receitas previstas, nomeadamente, pela criação de um organismo de avaliação da solvabilidade (departamento de crédito) e a adopção de legislação sobre a gestão dos recursos naturais. Para além disso, as autoridades pretendem implementar o quadro de responsabilidade orçamental destinado a resolver, em 2012, o défice orçamental recorrente e crónico e reforçar a responsabilidade de fazer cair o défice para um dígito, para 9,4% do PIB, no final de 2012, que compara com 11,9% em 2011. O excelente desempenho obtido neste domínio está ligado às reformas estruturais implementadas nos últimos anos com vista a melhorar a cobrança de receitas. A fim de fortalecer o sistema financeiro e melhorar a sua credibilidade, o Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe (BCSTP) está a planear reforçar a supervisão bancária, dando formação aos funcionários em gestão de riscos. Por outro lado, as suas actividades serão reorganizadas e os bancos não-rentáveis serão reestruturados. Espera-se, igualmente, que o novo plano de contas, que deverá entrar em vigor em 2013, respeite as normas internacionais de informação financeira. Por outro lado, deverá ser aprovado, em 2014, um quadro jurídico para os bancos com problemas, com vista a ajudar bancos em dificuldades a utilizar, entre outros, adequados instrumentos de acompanhamento e de supervisão. Em Abril de 2012, consciente da necessidade de conduzir o país à resolução do problema resultante do alto risco de sobre-endividamento, a Assembleia Nacional, com o apoio do Banco Mundial (BM) e do Debt Relief International (DRI), aprovou a nova Lei de Gestão da Dívida Pública, que define o quadro estratégico e estabelece as responsabilidades e a estrutura de governação do Departamento da Dívida Pública. Em linha com o objectivo de crescimento sustentável do país e a fim de demonstrar ainda mais o seu compromisso com a melhoria da transparência na gestão de fundos oriundos dos seus recursos naturais, o Governo aprovou vária legislação sobre a gestão de recursos naturais, incluindo um quadro de gestão dos recursos petrolíferos, em Agosto de 2000, e a criação de uma Agência Nacional do Petróleo e do Conselho Nacional do Petróleo (leis 8/2004, 5/2004 e 3/2004). Este esforço foi reforçado com a recandidatura, e respectiva aceitação, do arquipélago à Iniciativa de Transparência nas Indústrias Extractivas (EITI). A gestão eficiente das receitas oriundas do petróleo será, portanto, essencial aquando da produção de petróleo prevista para 2016. -- Perspectivas Económicas do Banco Africano de Desenvolvimento

O turismo é que salva Cabo Verde

Cape Verde remains a model for political rights and civil liberties in Africa, and its economic governance is sound despite unfavourable external factors and rising public debt levels. However, the country’s economic performance continues to be undermined by the economic and financial crisis around the globe, and in the euro area in particular. High unemployment, persistent inequality and rising living costs could lead to social instability. Overview The slowdown observed since the end of 2011 persisted in 2012, due to economic stagnation around the globe, and in the euro area in particular. Reduced foreign aid and sluggish foreign investment resulted in gross domestic product (GDP) growth dropping from 5.0% in 2011 to a projected 4.0% in 2012. Remittances inflows held up, however, and tourism did well. Tourism and ancillary activities remained the driving force of the economy in 2012, accounting for around 30% of GDP and 90% of total exports. Yet the deteriorating global economic outlook and the euro area sovereign debt crisis is likely to continue to weigh on Cape Verde’s economic performance. However large new public investments are expected to provide support to domestic demand and raise the GDP growth up to 4.8% in 2013. Over the medium term, the resumption of structural reforms will be critical if Cape Verde is to sustain the high growth rates of the past decade. Macroeconomic and fiscal management remained sound in 2012. Tighter fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy resulted in low inflation (2.5% in 2012 against 4.5% in 2011), an improvement in the external position and a recovery of international reserves to 3.8 months of imports in September 2012. Credit growth slowed considerably, however, reflecting sluggish demand and increased credit risks. The budget deficit equalled -7.3% of GDP. The government has already adopted corrective measures to improve revenue collection and scale back public investment in 2013. Cape Verde is still on track to achieve all the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, and remains a regional model of good governance, political rights and civil liberties. In spite of its past success, Cape Verde is facing challenges to keep growing at a sustainable and inclusive way. The country’s lack of non-renewable natural resources and poor conditions for agriculture keep it highly vulnerable to external shocks. Tourism, the main driver for economic growth, has successfully tapped into natural resources such as biodiversity, landscape and the environment. Hotels and restaurants, for instance, grew almost six times faster than the national economy between 2000 and 2010, accounting for almost 16% of GDP in 2010. Yet it supplied only 4.6% of all jobs in 2010, compared to 2.5% in 2000. The government of Cape Verde has therefore been seeking to promote a more balanced economic development. The Third Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (GPRSP III), yet to be adopted, reflects the government’s attempt to address the country’s structural challenges and adapt the country’s development model to its new non-Least Developed Country (LDC) circumstances. --African Economic Outlook, do Banco Africano de Desenvolvimento

Bissau: Economia sofreu com o golpe de 2012

The economy shrank by an estimated 1.5% in 2012 (after expanding by 5.3% in 2011) due to lower production and world prices of cashew nuts and problems after the April 2012 coup d’état. Growth is expected to be 4.2% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014. The budget showed a deficit equal to 2.3% of GDP in 2012 (down from a 0.7% surplus in 2011), but deficits are expected to contract to only 0.8% in 2013 and 1.0% in 2014, assuming there is an improvement in economic activity. Potentially substantial bauxite and phosphate reserves were discovered in the 1970s but have never been mined for lack of infrastructure. Overview The country’s macroeconomic situation was affected by a coup d’état on 12 April 2012, and the economy is estimated to have contracted by 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) that year after having grown by 5.3% in 2011. The slowdown was mainly due to lower production and world prices of cashew nuts, which account for some 30% of the added value in the primary sector. The average price of cashew nuts fell from USD 1 350 (US dollars) a tonne in 2011 to USD 1 081 in 2012. Real GDP growth is expected to recover to 4.2% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014. Inflation, which was 5.0% in 2011 due to higher import prices, should ease, thanks to expected macroeconomic evolutions, to 2.1% in 2012 (with 3.3% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014) as the economy slowly recovers and domestic markets are adequately supplied. The budget showed a deficit of 2.3% of GDP in 2012 after a 0.7% surplus in 2011. Thanks to budgetary discipline and better revenue collection, it is expected to shrink to a deficit of 0.8% in 2013 and of 1.0% in 2014. The current-account deficit worsened to 6.3% of GDP in 2012 but should improve to a deficit of 4.7% of GDP in 2013 and of 4.3% in 2014. Food imports should decline with an expected 5% increase in production and export of cashew nuts in 2013 and a satisfactory 2012/13 crop season. The social situation is still precarious. Guinea-Bissau has a very low score (0.364) on the worldwide Human Development Index (HDI) and ranks 176th out of 185 countries surveyed in the 2013 report. Per capita GDP was USD 614 in 2010, and more than two-thirds of the population was living on less than USD 2 a day and 33% on less than one dollar a day. The country showed an HDI average annual growth between 2000 and 2010 of 0.9%, compared with 2.1% for sub-Saharan Africa and 1.68% for very low-ranking countries. This bad score was due to widespread poverty, very low incomes because of lack of jobs and a life expectancy of only 48.6 years aggravated by difficult access to good healthcare. Mineral and oil resources have not been developed, except for some quarrying and small alluvial gold mining operations. Concessions have however been granted in recent years to mine bauxite (2007) and phosphates (1997). Several offshore oil discoveries have been made but their commercial viability is uncertain. -- African Economic Outlook

Boas perspectivas para Angola

Angola’s economy rebounded strongly after experiencing slow growth due to oil and financial crises. Economic growth is expected to reach 8.2% in 2013, and 7.8% in 2014, driven by the expansion in the oil and gas sector and a public expenditure programme designed to encourage economic diversification. The government has embarked on ambitious reforms to improve governance but the business environment remains challenging in terms of institutions and infrastructure settings. Nonetheless, the creation of the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) will help insulate the economy from volatile oil prices. The country has made significant strides in a variety of human development indicators, including poverty, health and education but still ranks low in the Human Development Index (HDI) at 148th place out of 187 countries surveyed and continues to provide only a rudimentary social safety net in the form of fuel and utility subsidies. Overview The Angolan economy rebounded strongly after several years of low growth attributable to the lingering effects of the global financial crisis. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an estimated rate of 7.9% in 2012 (up from 3.9% in 2011) on account of the strong performance of the energy, transportation and construction sectors. The outlook for 2013 and 2014 remains positive, with economic growth projected to reach 8.2% and 7.8%, respectively. This will be driven by a combination of continued expansion in the oil and gas sector and a public expenditure programme designed to encourage economic diversification. The implementation of the 2009-12 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) programme of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) helped the country to regain macroeconomic stability, achieve an improved fiscal position, more comfortable level of international reserves, a stable exchange rate, and lower inflation. Furthermore, large domestic arrears were settled, and progress was made in strengthening fiscal transparency and accountability. However, the country continues to face massive developmental policy challenges, including the reduction of the dependency on oil, the diversification of the economy, the rebuilding of the economic and social infrastructure, the improvement of the institutional capacity, governance, public financial management systems, human development and living conditions of the population. These factors are constraining the pace of diversification of the economy and preventing small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) development and job creation. Unemployment remains significant at about 25%, and the incidence of poverty remains high at 36.6% of the population. Much of the country’s growth over the past decade can be directly attributed to the exploration of natural resources. Oil still accounts for nearly 80% of government revenue, 90% of exports and 47% of the country’s GDP. This makes the economy heavily dependent on oil revenues and vulnerable to oil price shocks. In an attempt to further diversify the economy, a 5 billion US dollars (USD) Sovereign Wealth Fund (Fundo Soberano de Angola) was created in October 2012. The fund was endorsed by the IMF, which had long advocated such an instrument to help insulate the economy from volatile oil prices. Nonetheless, the main challenge rests on the government’s ability to ensure transparency, accountability and equitable distribution of the country’s natural resource earnings. Moreover, as Angola continues to access non-concessional financing to meet its development needs and expands the exploration of its natural resources, the government will need to guarantee the preservation of the country’s debt sustainability, while ensuring greater transparency and accountability in the management of oil revenues. --African Economic Outlook

A vigorosa economia da Costa do Marfim

Thanks to a return to political, social and institutional normality and efforts to rebuild and rehabilitate basic infrastructure, economic activity picked up, with growth estimated at 8.6% in 2012, expected to reach 8.9% in 2013 and 9.8% in 2014. If these growth rates are to be achieved the process of national reconciliation and social cohesion will need to be strengthened, and reforms to improve the business climate accelerated so the private sector can act as a driver of the revival of the economy. The country needs to take full advantage of its natural resources to maintain this momentum both by increasing the share of its agricultural products that are processed and by strengthening its institutional and and human capabilities and making more transparent the management of its fossil-fuel and mineral resources. Overview Economic activity after the post-election crisis was more vigorous than expected. The return of confidence among economic actors in the aftermath of the normalisation of the security situation and increased peace efforts was accordingly confirmed. After a fall of -4.7% in 2011 real gross domestic product (GDP) registered growth estimated at 8.6% in 2012, driven by public investment and the pick-up in final consumption. In the medium term the implementation of the National Development Plan (PND) 2012-15 should put the country back on the trajectory of inclusive and sustainable growth. GDP is forecast to grow in 2013 and 2014 at 8.9% and 9.8% respectively, sustained by the recovery of oil and gas production and by a rise in investment prompted by a better business climate and a strengthening of public-private partnerships. As a result of efforts to revive the economy the overall budget deficit deepened in 2012. For the first time in five years the external current account recorded a deficit. Nevertheless the satisfactory execution of the 2011-14 economic and financial programme, backed by the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), enabled the country to reach the completion point of the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative in June 2012 and to benefit from a substantial cut in its external debt. Inflation also returned to below the 3% level set at community level. On the political front the country saw notable progress in institutional, social and political, security and human rights normalisation. To fortify the recovery and ensure sustainable growth Côte d’Ivoire needs to continue its efforts in terms of structural transformation by taking full advantage of its considerable natural resources. In this respect, several obstacles hampering the sustainable management of natural resources need to be overcome. These are the weakness of the links between the companies exploiting the resources and the other sectors of the economy, and inadequate transparency in natural resources management and contracts relating to the sharing of production between the government and the oil companies. The country also enjoys a strong agricultural potential as the world’s biggest producer of cocoa. An increase in the rate of processing of agricultural production, which varies between 2% and 27%, should be a priority objective for the authorities in the years ahead. -- Dados do Banco Africano de Desenvolvimento

A Líbia está a recuperar da crise de 2011

Thanks to a rapid resumption of hydrocarbon production and exports, Libya’s economy recovered in 2012 from a severe contraction experienced in 2011, with real GDP growth 95.5% in 2012 against a contraction of 59.7% in 2011; inflation decelerated to 6.9% in 2012 from 15.9% 2011, and GDP growth is projected to normalise to 15% and 8.1% by 2013 and 2014, respectively, while inflation is expected to decline further to 4.7% in 2013 and 3.4% in 2014. The peaceful conduct of elections in July 2012 was a promising indication of Libya’s successful political transition, but the subsequent difficulties in forming a new government have highlighted the challenges of achieving stability. Libya’s successful transition and sustainable development hinges on the evolving security situation, the new government’s economic strategy, the resolution of regional tensions over hydrocarbon resources, and the international price of oil. Overview Libya’s economic activity began to recover in 2012 thanks to the nearly full resumption of oil production by September 2012, an increase in construction and infrastructure activity, and the prospects of reduced political instability. The political volatilities surrounding the transfer of power from the transitional government to a more permanent governance structure, together with an increase in domestic security incidents affecting the army and civilians, however, have acted as obstacles to a smooth recovery and delayed long-term economic planning. By September 2012, Libya’s oil production had nearly reached its pre-revolution levels of 1.6 million barrels per day (BPD). The 344% increase in the hydrocarbon component of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 was the main driver behind the high GDP growth (95.5%) in 2012. Although non-hydrocarbon economic activity was growing fast before the conflict, it still accounts for no more than 22% of GDP and a negligible part of total exports. Non-hydrocarbon economic activities were affected adversely by the war due to the destruction of infrastructure and production facilities, disruptions to banking activity, limited access to foreign exchange and the departure of expatriate workers. However, this component is expected to recover by 2014, driven mainly by reconstruction. The major long-term challenge facing the economy is to contain the dependence on oil revenues, particularly in light of the slowdown in international demand, and the urgent need for economic diversification in order to address the long-term financial and economic stability and Libya’s unemployment challenge. Despite its large contribution to the GDP, the oil and gas sector contributes to less than 2% of total employment (according to the latest data from 2007). Despite the increase in hydrocarbon revenues, the increase in domestic demand and high expenditure on subsidies and public-sector wages pose fiscal pressures on the government. Sustainable management of Libya’s petroleum resources is a major challenge facing the new Libyan leadership. The management of domestic oil operations, co-ordination of the fast-growing inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the petroleum sector, and containing the political and regional tensions over distribution of oil revenues are major variables determining the sustainable management of the petroleum sector. African Economic Outlook, do Banco Africano de Desenvolvimento