Argélia: Primeiro Conselho de Ministros em 9 meses

Le président algérien Abdelaziz Bouteflika a présidé, dimanche 29 septembre, son premier Conseil des ministres de l'année avec un gouvernement tout juste remanié, le 11 septembre. Selon l'agence de presse APS, au cours de cette réunion, sept projets de textes législatifs ont été examinés et approuvés, dont le projet de Loi des Finances pour l'année 2014. Les autres projets examinés portaient, entre autres, sur le pénal, la lutte contre la contrebande, une loi minière, une autre relative aux activités et au marché du livre et celui attendu sur l’activité audiovisuelle. Selon l'APS le Conseil des ministres a aussi examiné et approuvé quatre projets de décrets présidentiels portant approbation de contrats et d’avenants pour la recherche et l’exploitation d’hydrocarbures. Abdelaziz Bouteflika s'est également exprimé à la télévision nationale où il a insisté sur "la nécessité impérieuse pour toutes les institutions de la République, notamment le gouvernement, d'être en permanence à l'écoute de la société et de développer les canaux appropriés de dialogue et de concertation avec l'ensemble de ses composantes". Ajoutant qu'"il nous incombe donc de redoubler d'efforts pour léguer à nos enfants un pays économiquement prospère et résolument tourné vers l'avenir". "Cette mission requiert obligatoirement une administration efficace et transparente basée sur un service public moderne et de qualité, débarrassée des nuisances de la bureaucratie", a-t-il relevé, ajoutant que le citoyen devait "pouvoir compter sur l'agent public et lui faire confiance". Des déclarations qui font écho aux nombreuses dénonciations dans la presse sur des affaires de corruption qui impliqueraient de très hautes personnalités. "Du travail, de l'engagement et de l'abnégation" Si le chef de l'État a aussi abordé la prochaine échéance électorale, la présidentielle en avril, il n'a en revanche rien dit de ses intentions. Il a appelé son nouveau gouvernement à prendre "d'ores et déjà toutes les mesures et dispositions nécessaires afin de permettre (au) pays d'aborder, dans les meilleures conditions, les prochaines échéances politiques". "Notre ambition est grande, mais elle est à la mesure de l'Algérie et des aspirations de ses enfants", a-t-il ajouté, précisant qu'il attend de chacun de ses ministres "du travail, de l'engagement et de l'abnégation". Abdelaziz, au pouvoir depuis 14 ans, était absent de la scène politique algérienne depuis le 27 avril, date à laquelle il a été hospitalisé d'urgence à la suite d'un AVC. Après trois mois de soins à Paris, il est rentré le 16 juillet en Algérie où il est revenu petit à petit sur la scène politique. Le dernier Conseil des ministres s'était tenu en décembre 2012, la constitution algérienne stipulant qu'il ne peut se tenir en l'absence du président. Jeuneafrique.com/AFP

Síria: A denúncia do terrorismo internacional

UNITED NATIONS, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Syria's foreign minister on Monday compared what he described as an invasion of foreign terrorists across his country to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, remarks that Washington dismissed as offensive and disingenuous. In a speech to the annual meeting of the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem also said that "terrorists from more than 83 countries are engaged in the killing of our people and our army under the appeal of global Takfiri jihad." "There is no civil war in Syria, but it is a war against terror that recognizes no values, nor justice, nor equality, and disregards any rights or laws," Moualem said. The United Nations says more than 100,000 people have been killed in Syria's 2-1/2 year conflict. It began in March 2011 when the government tried to crush pro-democracy protests and eventually became a full-scale war. Now more than half of Syria's 20 million people need aid. "The people of New York have witnessed the devastations of terrorism, and were burned with the fire of extremism and bloodshed, the same way we are suffering now in Syria," Moualem said, referring to the Sept. 11 attacks that brought down the World Trade Center and damaged the Pentagon. "How can some countries, hit by the same terrorism we are suffering now in Syria, claim to fight terrorism in all parts of the world, while supporting it in my country?" he said. The U.S. mission to the United Nations responded angrily, saying Moualem's comment was "as disingenuous as it is offensive," adding that his statements "have no credibility." "The fact that the Syrian regime has shelled schools and hospitals and used chemical weapons on its own people demonstrates that it has adopted the very terrorist tactics that it today decried," said Erin Pelton, spokeswoman for the U.S. mission. Assad's government accuses Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Britain, France and the United States of arming, financing and training rebel forces in Syria. JIHADISTS IN SYRIA Moualem dismissed the idea that there are moderate rebels in Syria, which Western nations say are the ones they intend to support. "The claims about the existence of moderate militants and extremist militants have become a bad joke," he told the 193-nation assembly. "Terrorism means only terrorism. It cannot be classified as moderate terrorism and extremist terrorism." Moualem also referred to video footage on the Internet earlier this year of one rebel fighter eating what appeared to be the heart of a government soldier. "The scenes of murder, manslaughter and eating human hearts were shown on TV screens, but did not touch blind consciences," he said. "There are innocent civilians whose heads are put on the grill just because they violate the extremist ideology and deviant views of al Qaeda. "In Syria ... there are murderers who dismember human bodies into pieces while still alive and send their limbs to their families, just because those citizens are defending a unified and secular Syria," Moualem said. Earlier this month U.N. human rights investigators said hard-line Syrian rebels and foreign fighters invoking jihad, or holy war, have stepped up killings, executions and other abuses in northern Syria since July. Last week the U.N. Security Council achieved a rare moment of unity on the Syrian war by passing a resolution demanding the elimination of Syria's chemical arsenal by mid-2014. Assad's ally Russia supported the resolution, which was based on a U.S.-Russian plan agreed upon in Geneva. Moualem said the Syrian government is committed to fulfilling its obligations after having acceded to the Chemical Weapons Convention that bans the use of such weapons. But he repeated the government's position that it is the rebels who have been using poison gas, not forces loyal to Assad. "Terrorists, who used poisonous gases in my country, have received chemical agents from regional and Western countries that are well known to all of us," he said. The United Nations has received reports of at least 14 chemical attacks in Syria. The most recent was an Aug. 21 sarin gas attack that the United States says killed more than 1,400 people, many of them children. Assad's government and the rebels blame each other for the Aug. 21 attack, which took place in a Damascus suburb. U.N. investigators did not assign blame but Western governments say a recent U.N. report on that incident suggests government-allied forces were responsible. (Reporting by Louis Charbonneau; Editing by Claudia Parsons)

Tunísia: O Ennadha recua

TUNIS — Tunisia’s governing Islamist party, Ennahda, thrust into power by the Arab Spring, has agreed to step down after months of political wrangling with a hard-bargaining opposition. In three weeks, the Ennahda-led government is to hand over power to an independent caretaker government that will lead the country through elections in the spring. The deal comes as part of negotiations to restart Tunisia’s democratic transition after secular opposition groups, protesting the assassinations of two of their politicians, stalled work on a new constitution and an election law this summer. The two sides will enter discussions this week mediated by the Tunisian General Labor Union, the nation’s largest. Its deputy secretary general, Bouali Mbarki, announced Ennahda’s acceptance of the plan on Saturday. The move comes less than three months after the Islamist government of President Mohamed Morsi of Egypt, also elected during the Arab Spring uprisings, was ousted by the military. Ennahda officials have repeatedly made statements in recent weeks signaling the party’s readiness to resign as a way to break the political impasse. The opposition, and the union, have until now pressed for more concrete action. The union has scheduled three weeks for talks on a new government. During that time, the National Constituent Assembly, the body in charge of writing Tunisia’s new constitution, is expected to ratify it and confirm appointments to the election commission, resuming work after a two-month hiatus. After that, Ennahda’s coalition government will resign. The assembly, where Ennahda holds the largest bloc of seats, will remain in place to serve as a check on the new government. Ennahda decided to step down despite resistance from some of its members, saying Tunisia’s transition to democracy, which began after the president was toppled nearly two years ago, can succeed only with full political consensus. Party members have criticized their leaders as having given away too much, Rafik Abdessalam, the former foreign minister, said at a news conference on Monday. “It is being described as the party of concessions,” he said. “We are not ashamed of these concessions because they are needed by Tunisia and to secure our democratic experience so that Tunisia can reach a safe shore.” In fact, the country is so polarized, and opposition from leftist and secular parties, including the labor union, has been so dogged, that Ennahda leaders acknowledge that they are better off having a neutral government that is accepted by all sides to run the elections. Ennahda was the largest winner in elections in October 2011, promising a model government that would blend Islamist principles with pluralism. But it has since lost popularity amid economic decline and a growing threat from terrorism. Tunisia has avoided the open violence of Egypt and Libya in its democratic transition since it began the Arab Spring with a popular uprising against President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. Opposition parties have run a campaign of walkouts, sit-ins and evening rallies since the two assassinations to force the government to resign. Ennahda countered with its own rallies, busing in supporters for speeches, music and fireworks. With neither side strong enough to defeat the other, the Islamists and their opponents have ended up coming to the negotiating table. Yet Ennahda’s nearly two-year journey in government has been one of steady concessions and backing down. And it has been a sharp lesson for the Islamists: their party has been most weakened by extremist Islamists linked to Al Qaeda. Since the assassination of a prominent leftist politician, Chokri Belaid, in February, which brought accusations that it was soft or even in cahoots with Islamist terrorists, Ennahda has steadily been on the retreat. After the assassination, Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali resigned, saying the government had “disappointed” Tunisians with squabbling instead of leadership. Mr. Jebali was the first to suggest handing power to a government of technocrats. Ennahda opted for a reshuffle but appointed independent nonparty figures to critical posts, including the Interior and Justice Ministries. Then, in July, another opposition politician, Mohamed Brahmi, was assassinated in broad daylight in front of his family, bringing another wave of protests against the Ennahda government, even though the government this time quickly identified the culprits as an extremist Islamic cell linked to Al Qaeda, and blamed it for the Belaid assassination as well. Finally, the ouster of Mr. Morsi — allied with the Muslim Brotherhood — encouraged the Tunisian opposition to try to oust the government. Ennahda responded with further concessions, dropping all of its outstanding constitutional demands, including an article stating that Islam was the religion of the state and another that would have prevented a key rival, former Prime Minister Beji Caid Essebsi, from running for president. Working out the details of the agreement remains difficult. Distrust runs high, and as the end of the transition period nears, the political parties have entered a hard-nosed power struggle. “From 2011 we moved to another agenda, from the demands for a transitional democracy to a real struggle for power,” said Abdel Basset Ben Hassen, head of the Arab Institute for Human Rights. “Because of the change we have this tension and a lot of frustration.” The New York Times A version of this article appears in print on September 29, 2013, on page A8 of the New York edition with the headline: Islamist Party in Tunisia to Step Down.

Nigéria: Porquê tanta carnificina?

POTISKUM, Nigeria Suspected Islamic extremists attacked an agricultural college in the dead of night, gunning down dozens of students as they slept in dormitories and torching classrooms, the school's provost said, reporting the latest violence in northeastern Nigeria's ongoing Islamic uprising. As many as 50 students may have been killed in the assault that began at about 1 a.m. Sunday in rural Gujba, Provost Molima Idi Mato of Yobe State College of Agriculture, told The Associated Press. "They attacked our students while they were sleeping in their hostels, they opened fire at them," he said. He said he could not give an exact death toll as security forces still are recovering bodies of students mostly aged between 18 and 22. The Nigerian military has collected 42 bodies and transported 18 wounded students to Damaturu Specialist Hospital, 25 miles north, said a military intelligence official, who insisted on anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press. The extremists rode into the college in two double-cabin pickup all-terrain vehicles and on motorcycles, some dressed in Nigerian military camouflage uniforms, a surviving student, Ibrahim Mohammed, told the AP. He said they appeared to know the layout of the college, attacking the four male hostels but avoiding the one hostel reserved for women. "We ran into the bush, nobody is left in the school now," Mohammed said. Almost all those killed were Muslims, as is the college's student body, said Adamu Usman, a survivor from Gujba who was helping the wounded at the hospital. Nigeria workers find 143 civilian bodies in region plagued by Islamic extremists Islamic militants drive 19,000 rice farmers off land in northeast Nigeria Nigerian President vows to rein in Boko Haram threat Nigeria opens secret prison for Islamist militant group Boko Haram Wailing relatives gathered outside the hospital morgue, where rescue workers laid out bloody bodies in an orderly row on the lawn for family members to identify their loved ones. One body had its fists clenched to the chest in a protective gesture. Another had hands clasped under the chin, as if in prayer. A third had arms raised in surrender. Provost Idi Mato confirmed the school's other 1,000 enrolled students have fled the college. CBS News

Mali: Atentado suicida em Tombouctou

Un camp de l'armée malienne à Tombouctou (nord-ouest du Mali) a été visé samedi par un attentat suicide à la voiture piégée, qui a provoqué la mort des deux kamikazes et fait des blessés, ont indiqué à l'AFP des sources militaires. "Deux kamikazes à bord d'une voiture ont explosé devant notre camp militaire, ils sont tous morts. Il y a des civils blessés, mais je ne connais pas le nombre", a dit un militaire malien joint à l'intérieur du camp. L'attaque à la voiture piégée a été confirmée par un militaire membre de la force de l'ONU, la Minusma, présent à Tombouctou. Selon lui, il y a eu deux kamikazes tués "et au moins deux blessés civils". Jeune Afrique

Bissau: Palavras de Nhamadjo na ONU

We just celebrated, two days ago, the 40th anniversary of our national independence, and this is a good time for us to reaffirm, to your Excellencies, the following: during the entire period of armed struggle for national liberation, the people that I represent believed in the United Nations and in International Law, and my country today reiterates, maintains, and further reinforces this old belief. We achieved national independence in 1973. Indeed it was not given to us by anybody. But it became possible only as a result of the international solidarity of some and, ultimately, the recognition of all. To all, without exception, I wish, on behalf of Guinea-Bissau, to express our feeling of eternal gratitude, to declare our firm desire to strengthen longstanding ties of friendship, and to affirm our willingness, despite all that has transpired, to rebuild the foundations of solidarity that united our peoples in the past. Mr. President Mr. Secretary-General The person that addresses you at this time has risen to this podium to ask for your patience and understanding, and hopes for your solidarity. I am one who believes that expressions of generosity are not at all inconsistent with the cold rationality of relations among sovereign States. I am the Transitional President of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau and this title, as your Excellencies are well aware, indicates something that is particular and exceptional. Indeed the political and military events of April 12, 2012, created a new political environment in my country. A military coup had ousted the Interim President of the Republic and a self-suspended Prime Minister who had launched an inconclusive campaign to run for the Presidency. Faced with this situation, we then wondered: What are we to do? Fortunately, the best option available at the time, in our opinion, ultimately prevailed. We were able to avoid political mishaps that, had they taken hold, could have thrown the country into a political and military tailspin with consequences that would have been unpredictable and, certainly, much graver than what we nonetheless had to face and, in some ways, continue to face. 4 Therefore we had to circumscribe the dynamics of the military coup, control its political effects, limit its institutional reach, and, as if it were not enough, we had to deal with two opposing positions that emerged both internally and abroad. One of them was very detrimental to the peaceful return to constitutional normality in my country; but the other was much more realistic and thus more promising for the gradual reestablishment of constitutional order. We had to deal with the first so-called position, which was both curious and dramatic. This position was taken by people who preferred the worst possible situation for Guinea-Bissau. And do your Excellencies know why? The answer is this: they betted on the degradation of the political situation in my country in order to justify their theses, confirm their predictions, operationalize their political concepts of how to resolve the crisis in Guinea-Bissau. Indeed they made every attempt to apply the formula that dictated that" the worse for Guinea-Bissau, the better." Yes, the better indeed but only to serve their own interests. With such a radical position, they really managed to touch on the deepest sensibilities of a people that is humble but refuses to be humiliated. We are a true democracy, notwithstanding all our flaws, the violations of the democratic purpose of the State, and so many detours. We are the first to recognize this. But we must not forget that we are, first, a State born out of" centuries of pain and hope," and of a hard and victorious struggle for national independence, which has a strong influence on the determination of the political values to be defended. In order to enable the second option on the table to go forward, we were able to rely on the realism and prompt solidarity of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). With the important support of the United Nations Security Council, ECOWAS became solely responsible for managing the agreed Transition Period, and created a reduced stabilization military mission that became known as ECOMIB. On the political and institutional level, the parliament elected by the people of Guineas Bissau - our People' s National Assembly - remained standing and thus was able to provide the Political Transition with a legitimate and legitimizing institutional basis, In fact, the Constitution of the Republic had never been suspended. Mr. President Mr. Secretary-General Ladies and gentlemen That is the origin of the Transitional President of the Republic. It did not come from a military coup. It came, rather, from an elected Parliament and, therefore, from a political and institutional process. This makes all the difference. I combined the position of Member of Parliament, elected to the position four times in a row, as well as that of First Vice-President of that body of sovereignty - in other words, all modesty aside, I am a democrat with a mature conviction, and never ran a coup d' etat nor ordered any such actions. Indeed, with the inauguration of the Transitional President of the Republic, the Political Transition process per se began. After some time, Parliament approved the revised Transition Pact and corresponding Political Agreement, and, later on, the Program and General Budget for the State submitted by a Government with a broad political base, which I, as Transitional President of the Republic, appointed and installed by Presidential Decree. With these steps, the Political Transition truly took off. I have signed a Presidential Decree setting November 24th as the date for legislative and presidential elections. What remains - which is not little - is to ensure the availability of funds to carry out an effective, transparent, and unquestionable electoral process. To this end, we must create reliable voter registries, which can only be accomplished through an accurate census or voter registration process. This is where the Political Transition stands in Guinea-Bissau. 6 Ladies and gentlemen, Guinea-Bissau is the victim of two dramatically interlinked evils: poverty and political instability. In fact, in a society such as that of my country, poverty creates the propensity for political instability. In turn, political instability impacts the economic order, reduces the rate of growth and thus increases poverty rates. The challenge ahead of us consists precisely of escaping these two traps - the poverty trap and the political instability trap. Overcoming this challenge obviously goes well beyond the goals for this exceptional period of Political Transition. Therefore I will not go into further details in this regard. In light of this enormous economic and political liability, which is yet to be resolved, achieving the Millennium Development Goals within the established timeframe is truly beyond our means, at least for the foreseeable future. But this recognition does not mean that the government, civil society and GuineaBissau' s bilateral and multilateral development partners in general - including the specialized UN agencies - have given up on the effort. Much to the contrary. In Education, Health, Gender Equality policies, fight against Poverty, Environmental policies for Sustainable Development, as well as other areas, our country has made progress, though moderate and below satisfactory levels. As to following up on the recommendations emerging from the" Rio+20 Summit - The Future We Want," Guinea-Bissau will make every effort to carry out the commitments undertaken. We hope that the more developed countries, our partners, do their part in the fight against poverty, which is one of the greatest scourges that afflict states such as Guinea-Bissau, which are fragile and therefore very vulnerable, and are still suffering the grave consequences of armed conflict. 7 Guinea-Bissau supports the establishment of the High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development on September 24, 2013, which replaces the Commission on Sustainable Development and will develop Post-2015 International Development initiatives. As a country with islands, Guinea-Bissau congratulates the Secretary-General of the United Nations and his initiative to convene the Third International Conference on Small Island Developing States, in Samoa, in September 2014. Ladies and gentlemen I take this opportunity to thank the United Nations and particularly Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon for the attention that he has dedicated to my country and for appointing former President of Timor-Leste Jose Ramos Horta as his Special Representative to Guinea-Bissau. Mr. Ramos Horta has made excellent contributions to the political normalization of GuineaBissau. The State of Guinea-Bissau has never been and is not aloof of the evolution of the international political environment, and has never been indifferent to the hopes and suffering of the peoples of the world. In this regard, we are deeply solidary with our ECOWAS brothers in Africa. We wish great successes to the people of Mali, which has just demonstrated their great level of maturity, going to the polls with civic pride in their recent general elections, which marked the end of the period of Political Transition and, at the same time, sent a strong signal of national reconciliation and the beginning of their effort to rebuild a country destroyed by terrorist acts and unacceptable irredentism. We take this opportunity to congratulate France for their crucial role in safeguarding the integrity of the Malian territory, which is the basis of the people of Mali' s national sovereignty. 8 We repudiate the terrorist attacks that have taken place in Nigeria and Kenya, which have been spurred by radicalism and made so many victims in the name of religious intolerance. We hereby offer our full solidarity to our sister nations of Nigeria and Kenya, Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Uhuru Kenyatta, their Governments and the families of the victims. We hope that our neighboring Republic of Guinea may complete its electoral process successfully and thus open a path to a true national reconciliation in our sister nation. In Egypt and in ravaged Syria, we hope that dialogue and diplomacy prevail over force, so that the sacrifice of so many human lives may be avoided. In the Middle East, we continue to defend the Palestinian cause with as much conviction as ever. It is crucial for the Palestinian people, in particular, and for the political stability of and peace-building in the Arab world in general that the negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and the State of Israel advance toward the creation of a sovereign Palestinian State, in accordance with the relevant Resolutions of the United Nations. In Europe, a special word of recognition to France, which has never abandoned us and continues very active in seeking better ways to help Guinea-Bissau overcome its political crisis. And to the Kingdom of Spain, whose Ambassador among us has been instrumental in the efforts toward political normalization. Our friend Timor-Leste, a small country within the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries (CPLP) has shown an admirable spirit of cooperation with my country, thus demonstrating that friends do come through during the most difficult moments. The Timorese authorities realized something very simple: supporting an institutional process of political normalization is not the same as supporting a coup d' etat. Much to the contrary. Thank you, President Matan Ruak, thank you very much Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao. 9 Thank you very much, President Armando Guebuza, current President of the CPLP, for your fair assessment of the political process in my country, for your encouragement and appeal to the international community to provide financial support for the general elections in my country. I also take this opportunity to congratulate Murade Murargy, a Mozambican national who currently serves as Executive Secretary of the CPLP, for his dedication to the political normalization process in my country. With the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries, we hope one day - and may this day come soon - to see the full normalization of our relations, which is in the interest of all our peoples and sovereign States. With respect to Cuba, we call, as we have always called, for the end of the two-decade embargo, the advancement of the reforms that are underway in that friendly nation, with which we have so many and so deep ties of friendship and solidarity. With respect to Asia, we wish to express our profound gratitude to the People' s Republic of China for the extent and intensity of their cooperation with my country. The fruits of this cooperation - particularly in the construction of key public buildings - will enter history as indelible symbols of a friendship that dates back to our armed struggle for national liberation. I express the profound gratitude of the people of Guinea-Bissau to His Excellency Mr. Alassane Ouatarra, President of the Republic of Cote d' Ivoire and current President of ECOWAS, and to His Excellency Mr. Goodluck Jonathan, President of the Federative Republic of Nigeria and President of the Contact Group on Guinea-Bissau, as well as to all the Heads of State and Heads of Government of the member countries of ECOWAS. -- Parte do discurso de Manuel Serifo Nhamadjo na Assembleia-Geral da ONU. Nem uma só palavra sobre Portugal, Angola e Cabo Verde. Mas agradecimentos à França e à CEDEAO.

"O estranho universo paralelo da Alemanha"

Martin Wolf, do Financial Times 27/09/13 O notável resultado eleitoral de Angela Merkel confirma a chanceler alemã como figura política dominante na Alemanha e na Europa. Parte-se do princípio que terá a zona euro que pretende: uma Alemanha em ponto grande. O notável resultado eleitoral de Angela Merkel confirma a chanceler alemã como figura política dominante na Alemanha e na Europa. Parte-se do princípio que terá a zona euro que pretende: uma Alemanha em ponto grande. As palavras de Wolfgang Schäuble, ministro das Finanças alemão, são elucidativas: os profetas da desgraça estavam errados e "o mundo deveria rejubilar com os sinais positivos que a economia da zona euro tem dado de forma quase contínua nos últimos tempos". Se a recessão e o desemprego em massa são sinais de sucesso, então, o ajustamento na zona euro é uma grande vitória. Schäuble acusa os críticos de viverem num "universo paralelo". Pessoalmente prefiro isso a viver no seu universo. Em que ponto está a zona euro? A taxa de desemprego é de 12%. O PIB no segundo trimestre ficou 3% abaixo do pico anterior à crise e 13% abaixo da tendência anterior à crise. Os valores do PIB no último trimestre foram inferiores ao pico registado antes da crise: menos 7,5% em Espanha, 7,6% em Portugal, 8,4% na Irlanda, 8,8% em Itália e 23,4% na Grécia. A retoma é fraca em todos estes países e a taxa de desemprego preocupante: 12% em Itália, 13,8% na Irlanda, 16,5% em Portugal, 26,3% em Espanha e 27,9% na Grécia. Não fosse a emigração e estes números seriam ainda piores. O caso irlandês pode servir de alerta - voltou a ser competitivo e gere um excedente na balança de transacções correntes (BTC). Apesar disso, o PIB está estagnado há quatro anos. No terrível Verão de 2012, o Banco Central Europeu (BCE) prometeu fazer "o que fosse necessário" para salvar o euro. Pouco depois, anunciou a entrada em vigor do programa OMT, que consiste na compra de dívida pública dos países vulneráveis em mercado secundário por parte do BCE. Por um lado, serviu para acalmar os mercados, por outro, para a zona euro ganhar tempo. No entanto, não resolveu os problemas subjacentes. Que problemas são esses? Antes de mais, é preciso sair da actual confusão. Segundo, concluir as reformas necessárias a longo prazo. As actuais transferências orçamentais não são nem desejáveis nem exequíveis. Mais. São precisos melhores mecanismos de segurança para soberanos e bancos no longo prazo. Se a zona euro não deixar os estados membros recuperarem a saúde económica ao fim de um período de tempo razoável, tudo isto será puramente académico. É viável? Se a filosofia da Alemanha não mudar, "não". Como ficou claro no discurso de Schäuble, a procura não consta da análise. Ora, uma economia de grande dimensão com um excedente estrutural da BTC elevado não se limita a exportar produtos, também exporta falência e desemprego, em particular se o correspondente fluxo de capital for constituído por dívida de curto prazo. O facto de os novos desequilíbrios macroeconómicos não reconhecerem o papel da fraca procura interna na Alemanha é especialmente esclarecedor. O valor a partir do qual o excedente da BTC é motivo para preocupação é de 6% do PIB, independentemente da dimensão do país. A média alemã é precisamente de 5,9%. A zona euro está a tentar transformar-se numa Alemanha em ponto grande. O aumento da produtividade e a quebra na procura combinadas conduziu as economias vulneráveis ao equilíbrio externo. Entretanto, a Alemanha está a redireccionar os seus excedentes para fora da zona euro. A BTC da zona euro passou de uma situação deficitária para excedentária - 304 mil milhões de euros - entre o quarto trimestre de 2008 e o segundo trimestre de 2013. Embora isso ajude a resolver os problemas internos da zona euro, também exporta falência. A tentativa de exportar as suas dificuldades através de uma "política de empobrecimento do vizinho" é inconsistente com as obrigações da zona euro no âmbito do G20. Mas não só. Peca igualmente por duas razões. Primeiro, a zona euro é demasiado grande para que as exportações possam ser o motor do crescimento, como tem feito a Alemanha. Segundo, a moeda vai provavelmente valorizar ainda mais, esmagando novamente as economias menos competitivas. Pelo que pude perceber nada disto é relevante no universo de Schäuble. A zona euro poderia ser um sucesso não fosse esta filosofia. Vai sobreviver? Ninguém sabe. É assim que deve ser conduzido o projecto mais ambicioso da Europa? Não.