Boko Haram: O factor Kanuri

Over five and a half years after Boko Haram launched its insurrection, many questions concerning the Salafi-jihadi movement persist. Boko Haram’s center of activity, northeastern Nigeria’s Borno State, continues to be largely inaccessible to outsiders, making it difficult for researchers to gather detailed data. It still remains unclear exactly how many fighters Boko Haram possesses or the degree of autonomy individual militant commanders enjoy. Nevertheless, available information does provide an understanding of Boko Haram’s ethnic composition, which appears to consist primarily of Kanuri and Kanurized groups. That an ethnicity that makes up approximately just 8 percent of Nigeria’s Muslim population dominates Boko Haram’s membership is noteworthy and helps to explain the uprising’s geographical distribution, as well as highlighting local drivers behind the violence. Yet to suggest, as some observers have, that Boko Haram represents a “tribal insurgency” articulating Kanuri grievances toward the Nigerian state and a northern establishment supposedly controlled by ethno-cultural Hausa-Fulani exaggerates the importance of the Kanuri factor. Indeed, such an argument ignores key facets of Boko Haram’s millenarian ideology and its incompatibility with large segments of Kanuri society. The prominence of Kanuri within Boko Haram dates to the movement’s founding in the early 2000s. Based in Kanuri-majority Maiduguri, Borno State’s capital and largest city, Boko Haram’s demographics reflected its surroundings. The rapid growth Boko Haram experienced during its first years of existence seems to have stemmed from multiple factors, in particular support it allegedly received from then Borno governor (2003-2011) Ali Modu Sheriff, the relative weakness of local traditional institutions, and the charisma of early Boko Haram leader Mohammed Yusuf. The use of existing adherents’ social networks to facilitate recruitment efforts predictably reinforced Boko Haram’s Kanuri character. When Nigerian security forces reportedly killed hundreds of Boko Haram members, including Yusuf, in July 2009, those most adversely affected by the deaths (e.g. family and friends of the slain) were Kanuri. This embittered population served as a pool of new fighters for Boko Haram as it reconstituted itself under Abubakar Shekau. Despite the prevalence of Kanuri among its ranks, Boko Haram exhibits little evidence of being ethnocentric, let alone chauvinistic. The often-cited 2012 claim by reputed Boko Haram spokesman Abu Qaqa that Shekua, a Kanuri, favored selecting non-Kanuri members to carry out suicide bombings lacks sufficient corroborating evidence and could have been fabricated by Abuja’s State Security Service to sow internal discord within Boko Haram. Given that the majority of Boko Haram’s victims to date have probably been Kanuri, it does not appear Shekau and his inner circle regard Kanuri lives as sacrosanct. Nor do they seem opposed to promoting supporters from non-Kanuri ethnicities; following the seizure of the town Dikwa, Boko Haram appointed one such individual as the new shehu, a position of traditional authority previously held by a Kanuri. In reality, Boko Haram seems intent on constructing a pan-ethnic Islamist movement. Its heavy use of Hausa – a language widely spoken in the Sahel and the lingua franca of northern Nigeria – in communiqués indicates that Shekau desires an audience far beyond his Kanuri kinsmen. Further, the Boko Haram chieftain has lavished praise on historical figures revered in Hausa-Fulani territories, most notably Usman dan Fodio, the founder of the Sokoto Caliphate (1804-1903). While Boko Haram’s failure thus far to develop a more diverse coalition might stem, at least in part, from ethnolinguistic tensions in Nigeria’s north, a more prosaic explanation could be that the Salafi-jihadi group simply lacks the social networks to successfully recruit large numbers of non-Kanuri. The assertion that Boko Haram seeks to recreate the historical Kanuri kingdom of Borno (c. 1380-1893) also conflicts with reports coming out of northeastern Nigeria. Boko Haram fighters have relentlessly targeted for assassination traditional authority figures descended from the defunct Borno kingdom’s aristocracy, including members of the royal al-Kanemi dynasty. By reportedly declaring the territory under its possession a “caliphate,” Boko Haram has made a sharp break with the past. The previous Muslim polities that controlled modern-day northeastern Nigeria never used the term; Boko Haram’s core leadership clearly has aspirations to extend its rule well outside of Borno’s old boundaries. Far from being reactionary, Boko Haram’s leaders appear to aspire to forge a new political and socioeconomic reality. Their ideology is, after all, partly a violent offshoot of the sharia movement that swept northern Nigeria following the return of civilian rule in 1999. Many northerners hoped the application of sharia law would usher in a more equitable society through a partial redistribution of wealth and the vigorous prosecution of corrupt political elites. Boko Haram’s relentless attacks against individuals tied to the Kanuri establishment demonstrate its antipathy toward the northeast’s existing hierarchy. In areas it has captured, Boko Haram has allegedly seized the property of local notables and allocated it among its followers. The contours of a vicious class struggle within Kanuri society are readily evident. In addition to the northeastern elites, Boko Haram’s worldview is at odds with rural Kanuri communities. Salafism – both its peaceful and violent varieties – remains primarily an urban phenomenon in Nigeria’s northeast. Cities tend to have a higher concentration of youths bereft of established kinship networks and therefore attracted to the universalist message espoused by Islamic revivalists. Conversely, the countryside serves as a bastion of traditionalism, with many Muslims practicing syncretic forms of Islam that incorporate elements of indigenous religions. Boko Haram’s transition to a largely rural-based insurgency has placed the Salafi-jihadi movement in an operational environment where the majority of inhabitants regard it as an alien interloper. Rather than adjust its messaging to appeal toward the wary peasantry, Boko Haram appears to have elected to pursue a strategy of armed coercion in order to secure local compliance. This approach helps account for the surge in civilian fatalities as well as Boko Haram’s seemingly growing reliance on conscription and monetary compensation to replenish its ranks. Local tensions and vendettas animate much of the violence engulfing Borno State and its environs. Furthermore, Boko Haram’s emergence from Maiduguri’s Kanuri underclass still shapes the composition of its membership. However, neither Shekau nor his lieutenants regard themselves as Kanuri nationalists tasked with championing the parochial interests of their ethnicity. Instead, they likely seek to spearhead a multi-ethnic revolution that will transform Nigerian society. To realize this goal, Boko Haram will continue to wage a bloody campaign against those who oppose its agenda, including the overwhelming majority of Kanuri. Those interested in vanquishing Boko Haram should regard the Kanuri as potential allies, rather than jihadi collaborators. Michael W. Baca, Africa analyst.

Zimbabwe: Os erros da Reforma Agrária

Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has admitted failures in the country's controversial land reform programme. "I think the farms we gave to people are too large. They can't manage them," the 91-year-old leader said in unusually candid comments. In the past he has tended to blame poor agricultural productivity on the weather and Western sanctions. The seizure of land from white farmers is seen as a key factor in Zimbabwe's economic meltdown since 2000. The BBC's Brian Hungwe in the capital, Harare, says it is not the first time President Mugabe has criticised new black farmers - but his comments are surprisingly frank. They point to continuous problems in accounting for low production levels and the under-utilisation of farms, which reflect badly thought-out land policies, he says. The president denied that Grace Mugabe was the "power behind my throne" Mr Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since independence in 1980, was interviewed on the state broadcaster ZBC to mark his 91st birthday, which he celebrated last weekend. He said he wanted to encourage farmers to go into wheat farming, and blamed low productivity on the new commercial farmers for failing to utilise all their land. "You find that most of them are just using one third of the land," Zimbabwe's state-owned Herald newspaper quotes him as saying. During the colonial era, the best farmland was reserved for the white population and in 2000, Mr Mugabe spearheaded the seizure the land from some 4,000 white farmers. His critics say the land was handed out to his political allies and many of the beneficiaries were not given the equipment or training to farm productively, leading to the collapse of the agriculture-based economy. In the interview, he also denied pushing his wife Grace to enter politics. Last year, she became head of the women's league and in the ruling Zanu-PF party, and embarked on a nationwide tour, in which she denounced party rivals. This led to speculation that she was being readied to succeed her husband as president. "She is not the power behind my throne. She has come into politics in her own right," Mr Mugabe said. The headline of The Herald, widely seen as a government mouthpiece, is: "I'm still in charge, says President". BBC

As mentiras de Netanyahu

US Secretary of State John Kerry has questioned the judgement of Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu over his stance on Iran's nuclear programme. Mr Netanyahu has criticised the US and others for "giving up" on trying to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. The Israeli PM "may not be correct", Mr Kerry said after attending the latest Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Mr Netanyahu will address Congress next week, after an invitation by Republican leaders criticised by the White House. Mr Kerry was reacting to a speech in which Mr Netanyahu had said the US and others were "accepting that Iran will gradually, within a few years, develop capabilities to produce material for many nuclear weapons". "I respect the White House and the president of the United States but on such a fateful matter, that can determine whether or not we survive, I must do everything to prevent such a great danger for Israel," he said in a speech in Israel. Having just concluded the latest round of nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva, Mr Kerry told senators President Obama had made it clear the policy was not to let Iran get nuclear weapons and Mr Netanyahu's might therefore not be correct. US Secretary of State John Kerry, left, listens to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, as they walk in the city of Geneva, Switzerland 14 January 2015 Mr John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart have been negotiating Iran's nuclear future The invitation for Mr Netanyahu to speak before Congress has angered Democrats. A spokesman for the White House warned against reducing US-Israeli relations to a party-political issue. Earlier, US National Security Adviser Susan Rice had gone further and said Mr Netanyahu's visit was "destructive to the fabric of the relationship". Analysis - Barbara Plett Usher, BBC News, Washington Administration officials have been hitting back at Mr Netanyahu's aggressive opposition to the nuclear deal they're negotiating with Iran - they're unhappy his speech to Congress will give him a platform to make his case as talks reach a critical juncture. Susan Rice's comments highlight that strain and are the most direct reference by a senior official to the damage caused by the controversy over the visit. It was arranged by Republican congressional leaders without consulting the Democrats or the White House, just two weeks before Mr Netanyahu faces an election. That has angered Democrats, some of whom feel they'll be forced to choose between President Obama and their desire not to upset Israel. More than a dozen have said they plan to skip the speech, opening an unprecedented breach in the usual show of bipartisan support for Israel. line Mr Netanyahu was invited by House Speaker John Boehner in what is seen as a rebuke to US President Barack Obama's Iran policy. Mr Netanyahu is expected to discuss Iran, as well as Islamist militant groups, in his address. The current tensions took root over a decade ago when Iran's nuclear programme first came to light. In 2005, Iran was referred to the UN Security Council, leading to a series of sanctions and UN resolutions requiring Tehran to stop enriching uranium. The US and other powers - the so-called P5+1 - are negotiating with Iran on its nuclear programme. They want to agree a deal by March this year, but Mr Netanyahu is opposed to any agreement which might allow Tehran to retain the future capacity to build a nuclear weapon. Tough election The Israeli leader has turned down an invitation to meet Senate Democrats privately, saying this "could compound the misperception of partisanship" surrounding his trip. Several Democratic members of Congress including Vice-President Joe Biden have said they will not attend the speech. Republican leaders did not consult the Obama administration before inviting Mr Netanyahu, which the White House has called a breach of protocol. White House spokesman Josh Earnest said on Wednesday: "The president has said the relationship between the US and Israel can't just be reduced to a relationship between the Republican party and the Likud party." Mr Obama does not plan to meet Mr Netanyahu next week. The White House cited the "long-standing practice" of not meeting government leaders close to elections, which Israel will hold in mid-March. Mr Netanyahu is fighting a tough election against the Labour Party's Yitzhak Herzog, who has focused on the prime minister's cooler relations with Mr Obama. BBC

Nigéria: O falhanço de Goodluck Jonathan

Le chef de l'État nigérian, Goodluck Jonathan, a reconnu dimanche avoir sous-estimé la capacité de nuisance de Boko Haram. Ce même jour, une fillette a tué cinq personnes en se faisant exploser dans le nord-est du pays. L'aveu de faiblesse de Goodluck Dans un entretien à l'influent journal privé This Day, diffusé dimanche 22 février, le président nigérian Goodluck Jonathan a reconnu avoir "sous-estimé" le groupe terroriste. "Probablement, au début (de l'insurrection), nous - je veux dire mon équipe et moi-même - avons sous-estimé les capacités de nuisance de Boko Haram", a-t-il déclaré, ajoutant que de "nombreux responsables sécuritaires" ont fait dans le passé des déclarations minimisant la portée du groupe. De fait, depuis 2009, les forces nigérianes ont échoué à endiguer l'expansion des insurgés, même si elles ont annoncé récemment avoir repris plusieurs villes à Boko Haram et tué des centaines de ses membres, comme dans les villes stratégiques de Monguno et Baga. Selon Goodluck Jonathan, l'armée nigériane s'est dotée récemment de nouvelles armes et munitions. "Si Dieu le veut, nous arrêterons Shekau avant les élections", a dit le président, candidat à sa réélection. Le Nigeria devait organiser le 14 février une présidentielle couplée à des législatives et sénatoriales, qui ont été reportées de six semaines, au 28 mars, pour permettre à l'armée de se concentrer sur son offensive contre les islamistes. La tournée de Fabius Le ministre français des Affaires étrangères, Laurent Fabius, a effectué ce week-end une tournée africaine de 48 heures au Tchad, au Cameroun et au Niger. Tandis que les pays voisins du Nigeria organisent la riposte militaire, le ministre français des Affaires étrangères Laurent Fabius a précisément invité Abuja à s'engager "pleinement" contre le groupe islamiste, dimanche à Niamey. "On n'est pas partis pour une guerre de 10 ans. Nous avons les forces qui sont déjà en place. Si ces forces peuvent être financées et équipées, je pense qu'on viendra à bout de Boko Haram assez rapidement", a pour sa part estimé le président nigérien, Mahamadou Issoufou. Le Nigeria, le Niger, le Tchad, le Cameroun et le Bénin ont annoncé le 7 février qu'ils allaient mobiliser 8 700 hommes dans une force multinationale. Ils comptent déposer d'ici "fin février" un projet de résolution devant le Conseil de sécurité, selon le gouvernement camerounais Stratégie de la terreur Sur le terrain, la stratégie de la terreur utilisée par Boko Haram se poursuit. Une fillette âgée d'environ 7 ans a tué cinq personnes en se faisant exploser dimanche dans le nord-est du Nigeria. D'après des témoins joints depuis Kano (Nord), celle-ci a actionné vers 13h30 locales (12h30 GMT) une ceinture d'explosifs qu'elle portait à la taille à Kasuwar Jagwal, un lieu dédié à la vente et la réparation de téléphones à Potiskum, très fréquenté à cette heure de la journée. Cinq personnes ont été tuées et 19 blessées. Selon les témoins, elle avait été renvoyée quatre fois à l'entrée du site par des gardiens et membres de milices d'auto-défense qui l'avaient jugée suspecte, en raison de son âge. Les contrôles se sont faits plus stricts depuis un précédent attentat-suicide commis en janvier par deux filles d'environ 15 et 20 ans aux abords du même site, ayant fait six morts et 37 blessés. Finalement, la fillette est revenue par un autre côté, "elle s'est baissée pour franchir le cordage de sécurité, à une certaine distance de nous. Et c'est là qu'elle s'est fait exploser", a expliqué Buba Lawan, chef d'une milice locale d'autodéfense. L'attaque-suicide n'avait pas été revendiquée mais, selon plusieurs observateurs, elle porte la signature de Boko Haram, qui a déjà eu recours à plusieurs reprises à des femmes et des fillettes pour ce type d'opérations. Lire l'article sur Jeuneafrique.com : Terrorisme | Nigeria : Goodluck Jonathan reconnaît avoir sous-estimé Boko Haram | Jeuneafrique.com - le premier site d'information et d'actualité sur l'Afrique Follow us: @jeune_afrique on Twitter | jeuneafrique1 on Facebook

Boko Haram: Progresso no audiovisual

Vidéos de mauvaise qualité, plans grossiers et son à peine audible: ces images-là semblent désormais appartenir aux archives de la communication du groupe islamiste nigérian Boko Haram, dont la propagande, qui est récemment montée d'un cran, s'apparente de plus en plus à celle des jihadistes du groupe État islamique (EI). Boko Haram, qui essuie actuellement de lourdes pertes humaines selon l'armée nigériane, a publié cette semaine deux vidéos contrastant totalement avec les précédentes, en utilisant notamment des symboles visuels et des styles semblables à ceux utilisés par l'EI pour recruter des candidats au jihad dans ses rangs en Syrie ou en Irak. Le groupe islamiste, qui multiplie les attaques sanglantes dans le nord-est du Nigeria depuis six ans, et qui n'hésite pas à étendre ses raids meurtriers aux Tchad, Niger et Cameroun voisins, pourrait avoir développé ses compétences techniques, selon Aaron Zelin, du Winep (Washington Institute for Near East Policy), think-tank américain consacré au Moyen-Orient. "Le plus frappant", selon ce spécialiste, "c'est la grande différence entre les vidéos des quatre à cinq dernières semaines et ce qu'il (Boko Haram) faisait auparavant. Il me semble qu'il y a un certain niveau d'influence extérieure ou une tentative de le relier à quelque chose". Le net changement à la fois dans la forme et le contenu de la propagande de Boko Haram pousse certains experts à spéculer sur d'éventuels liens tissés avec des jihadistes au Moyen-Orient ou une possible alliance entre ces différents groupes. Mais selon d'autres spécialistes, il n'y a pour l'heure aucune preuve concrète de liens directs, même si des jihadistes opérant dans le Sahel ont sans doute été en contact avec des membres de l'EI. "Les noyaux dirigeants de Boko Haram et de l'EI n'ont pas vraiment de contacts mais beaucoup des groupes qui leur sont affiliés en ont, pour faire du business", explique Yan St-Pierre du groupe Mosecon (Modern Security Consulting Group), spécialisé dans le contre-terrorisme. Le fait que Boko Haram, selon ce spécialiste, contrôle des zones de la région du lac Tchad - route notoire de contrebande et de trafics d'armes - a poussé des miliciens étrangers à prendre langue avec lui. Conséquence: ce groupe, essentiellement composé de Nigérians avec des revendications locales à l'origine, s'est de plus en plus ouvert à une influence internationale, ajoute M. St-Pierre. - Du CD-Rom à YouTube et Twitter - Les premières vidéos de Boko Haram, de qualité médiocre, étaient fabriquées de manière quasiment artisanale puis distribuées par des intermédiaires sur CD-Rom ou clés USB à des correspondants d'organes de presse - dont l'AFP - dans le nord du Nigeria. Elles montraient la plupart du temps son chef, Abubakar Shekau, gesticulant dans de longs monologues. A partir de décembre 2013, ces vidéos incluent des plans variés et surtout, des images d'exécutions et d'exactions. Puis le groupe a commencé à poster ses vidéos sur YouTube, et, pour la première fois le 17 février, sur Twitter via un compte en arabe, montrant des images nettes d'un Shekau plus posé. YouTube et Twitter, deux moyens de contourner le filtre des médias traditionnels, permettant à Boko Haram de mieux "contrôler" ses messages, d'après des experts. Boko Haram a aussi diffusé jeudi une bande-annonce illustrée de combattants sur le terrain, avec un graphisme et des images au ralenti rappelant la propagande d'EI. Depuis un compte de plus en plus populaire, il a par ailleurs posté des photos présentées comme celles d'une attaque de la ville de Gombe (nord-est du Nigeria) ainsi que des communiqués. Yan St-Pierre voit dans l'utilisation de symboles jihadistes étrangers dans les vidéos du groupe nigérian comme une "demande ouverte" d'alliance plus formelle avec l'EI et Al-Qaïda par des factions utilisant le nom de Boko Haram. Mais selon Max Abrahms, spécialiste des groupes terroristes à l'université américaine Northeastern à Boston (Massachusetts), l'évolution technologique des islamistes s'inscrit en fait dans l'air du temps: "Les groupes terroristes agissent simplement de pair avec l'époque actuelle. On ne devrait pas en être surpris". M. Abrahms considère cependant que les tirades répétées d'Abubakar Shekau contre les États-Unis et Israël, cibles récurrentes des jihadistes, visent à ratisser large, en quête de soutiens, voire de nouveaux recrutements. "Boko Haram a gagné du terrain, même avec une propagande d'amateurs. Ce que les médias sociaux semblent faire, c'est lui apporter des adeptes de coins les plus reculés du monde, dont la plupart demeureront de lointains sympathisants", estime-t-il. Phil HAZLEWOOD - See more at: http://fr.africatime.com/cameroun/articles/boko-haram-une-nouvelle-strategie-de-communication-pour-ratisser-large#sthash.DDmgIXuI.dpuf

Timor-Leste: Xanana ministro do Planeamento

Os 38 membros do VI governo constitucional de Timor-Leste tomaram posse esta segunda-feira com um juramento perante o Presidente da República, Taur Matan Ruak, numa cerimónia no palácio de Lahane, nos arredores de Díli. O novo primeiro-ministro, Rui Araújo, e cada um dos seus colegas juraram em português antes de assinarem o termo de posse e serem saudados pelo chefe de Estado. Os únicos momentos de aplausos ocorreram quando foi a vez do juramento do último ministro, Xanana

Gusmão, que ocupa agora a pasta do Planeamento e Investimento Estratégico, já no final da cerimónia. Novo PM timorense promete «boa governação» O novo primeiro-ministro timorense, Rui Maria Araújo, prometeu esta segunda-feira, em Díli, que o seu governo vai atuar com rigor e integridade, «fortalecendo a boa governação, a transparência e o combate à corrupção». «A responsabilização, a prestação de serviços de qualidade e a disciplina não são opcionais, são condição sine qua non para servir o povo timorense. Esta transformação radical nas mentalidades dos nossos agentes públicos é fundamental», disse Rui Maria Araújo depois da cerimónia de tomada de posse dos 38 membros do seu executivo perante o chefe de Estado Taur Matan Ruak. O chefe de governo disse que será prioridade do executivo «combater a cultura de burocratização na administração pública», considerando que nos últimos anos a estrutura administrativa «transformou-se num elefante com pés de barro». «Agora, chegou hora de criar uma nova ordem burocrática, mais leve, profissional e técnica e menos politizada», disse Rui Araújo, declarando-se contra «o compadrio que resulta quase sempre em mediocridade». Rui Araújo exigiu também empenho dos membros do governo, a quem promete uma responsabilização «política, administrativa e criminal sobre todos os atos e no âmbito das responsabilidades de cada um». O novo primeiro-ministro referiu-se ainda à situação económica do país e à grande dependência dos recursos petrolíferos, aproveitando para insistir que Timor-Leste vai avançar para «a definição clara das fronteiras marítimas e terrestres perante a queda no preço do petróleo». Rui Maria Araújo disse que é vital melhorar o equilíbrio fiscal do país e promover «uma política fiscal sustentável e uma despesa pública coerente para evitar o desperdício». O desenvolvimento agrícola, o setor do turismo e o desenvolvimento do enclave de Oecusse são setores onde a economia timorense se pode diversificar no setor da justiça, de acordo com o novo primeiro-ministro. Rui Araújo salientou que o governo quer levar a cabo um reforço das capacidade e competências, mas disse que esse esforço «exige uma avaliação profunda do setor da justiça e o estabelecimento de um novo quadro de cooperação adequado às necessidades do pais». O primeiro-ministro deixou ainda uma mensagem à sociedade civil, comprometendo-se a estabelecer uma «auditoria social, permitindo que os indicadores de ação governativa sejam passados a pente fino com maior responsabilidade».

Mais de 30 partidos na Guiné-Bissau

Bissau – O Supremo Tribunal de Justiça (STJ) anunciou a legalização de mais uma formação política na Guiné-Bissau. Em comunicado que a PNN consultou, o STJ anunciou a legalização de mais um partido político no país. Trata-se da Assembleia do Povo Unido – Partido Democrático da Guiné-Bissau (APU-PDGB), liderado pelo candidato Presidencial derrotado nas últimas eleições, Nuno Nabiam. «Para o conhecimento público comunica-se que, tendo o partido da Assembleia do Povo Unido – Partido Democrático da Guiné-Bissau cumprido integralmente as formalidades previstas na Lei-quadro das formações políticas, o Presidente do Supremo Tribunal de Justiça ordenou, ao abrigo das leis existentes no país e com as suas alterações introduzidas, a inscrição nos registos competentes desta formação política conhecida pela sigla APU-PDGB», lê-se no comunicado. Com o reconhecimento desta nova formação política, somam-se mais de três dezenas de partidos na Guiné-Bissau, na sua maioria sem sedes próprias, sendo outras ainda os seus órgãos sociais caducos. (c) PNN Portuguese News Network