A fragilidade de Timor-Leste

Loro Horta YaleGlobal, 22 May 2014 DILI: The leader and founding father of Asia’s youngest nation, Xanana Gusmao, announced in November that he was resigning as prime minister and leaving politics. The announcement comes amidst growing state failure and rampant mismanagement. Since Timor-Leste’s independence from Indonesia in 2002, Gusmao has dominated the small nation’s politics. His intention to resign has led many to accuse him of cowardice – after all, he carries the bulk of the responsibility for the current chaos. His resignation is likely to create a power vacuum and exacerbate the crisis. State failure in Timor-Leste can have severe consequences for regional security creating a refugee crisis and providing a safe haven for criminal organizations and other illicit activities. Despite massive international support and oil money the country remains fragile. More than a decade after independence from neighboring Indonesia and two United Nation interventions, the former Portuguese colony remains an impoverished and fragile state. For a decade Timor was the highest recipient of foreign aid in the world, in per capita terms, with Australia, Portugal and Japan footing most of the bill – even as the country, since 2007, has been receiving significant revenues from oil and gas at the tune of $2 billion a year. Very little has reached the common people while the country’s infrastructure remains one of the worse in the region with power cuts frequent even in the capital of Dili. For a decade, Timor was the world’s highest per-capital recipient of foreign aid – despite significant oil and gas revenues. According to a May 2013 International Crisis Group report, 71 percent of the workforce in East Timor is either unemployed or just informally employed. Nearly two thirds of the country’s population is under 30 years old creating a serious source of tension. One third of the country lives in poverty and 50 percent are illiterate. As of 2010, the country had the highest rate of urbanization in the world at 5 percent a year with thousands of unemployed young men moving into the capital. Slums with deplorable conditions are emerging on the foot of the mountains that encircle Dili, while luxury houses such as the one built by the Minister of Finance Emilia Pires in Farol are being erected by a privileged few. Timor is no stranger to poverty. However, the appearance of small pockets of affluence next to abject poverty is new. Child prostitution is common, even among school children. In June this year the secretary of state for gender told the media that prostitution was increasing in the country, particularly among high school students. Corruption is fast becoming endemic with several scandals exposed in the media involving ministers and other senior officials. The most ridiculous case is that of the minister of justice, in contempt of court for refusing to pay child support to his chronically ill child. Following the July 2012 elections Gusmao created the largest government in the Asia Pacific with a cabinet made up of 55 members – this in country with a population of just over 1 million. Not surprisingly, the state bureaucracy is in total disarray with Gusmao himself admitting that most of his numerous ministries are only able to use about 30 percent of their yearly budgets allocated to the ministries. Public servants go for months without pay, and hundreds of international advisors go for a year without pay. The government is not only ridiculously large, but includes ministers accused of murder to sexual assault. Timor is no stranger to poverty. The appearance of small pockets of affluence next to abject poverty is new. The country has one of the most generous retirement packages for its politicians. Ministers, deputy ministers, members of parliament, judges and other senior officials are entitled to a life pension that varies from $2500 to $4000 after completing a five-year term – in country where the per capital income is $3335. Neither the government nor the opposition has been keen on changing the law, instead spending millions on luxury cars, houses and trips abroad while unemployment continues to grow. So far Prime Minister Gusmao has kept a fragile peace by spending significant amounts in expanding patronage networks, awarding contracts and other benefits to supporters and buying off critics. The strategy works – as long as the state continues to have access to generous finances from the country’s oil wealth. The off-shore oil production creates few jobs because of minimal production and refinery capabilities. Another problem, several studies indicate that the country’s oil and gas reserves will last for another 15 years at most. More than a decade of independence, riots, corruption and outright arrogance on the part of the young nation’s leaders have led to an economy completely dependent on oil and gas, one that produces little else. Oil and gas exports account for more than 90 percent of the nation’s GDP, the highest dependence on natural resource extraction in the world. The Asian Development Bank estimates that in 2014 the country’s oil revenues will decline by 41 percent. There are some signs of hope. Timor remains a democracy, its media among the freest in the region. Figures like President Taur Matan Ruak, a former chief of defense force and guerrilla fighter, and Minister for State Agio Pereira are widely respected for their honesty. The country’s former prosecutor general, the implacable and ill-humored Ana Pessoa jailed several senior officials including former Minister of Justice Lucia Lobato. While Pessoa was eventually replaced after some obscure maneuvers, her successor seems determined to carry on her legacy. When Pessoa was forced out of office in March 2012, the local media run headlines proclaiming, “She is still our prosecutor general” and the US ambassador held a farewell party. A survey of law students found that over 80 percent wanted to become prosecutors. Despite many challenges, Timor-Leste remains a democracy and perhaps in the end that may be its salvation. Oil, gas exports account for 90 percent of Timor-Leste’s GDP, the world’s highest dependence on natural resource extraction. In January 2014 Gusmao reaffirmed his intention to resign, adding that the state was in complete disarray and something needed to be done soon. He has promised on several occasions a radical reduction in the size of government and a serious crackdown on corruption. His resignation will only accelerate the process of state failure. Ironically, Gusmao oversaw such a state of chaos and only he can fix it. Citizens wait to see if the hero of independence and the father of Asia’s youngest nation has the courage to lead the nation in what maybe is its most difficult hour. Or, will he take the easiest option and leave? Timor’s case also has profound implications for future international efforts at state building. If a tiny territory rich in resources that received generous support from the world fails, then what are the chances for less prosperous territories? Since the early 1990s international efforts at state building have increased, however there are few success stories. While the international community has hailed Timor a success story this may turn out to be a self-deceiving exercise. Timor-Leste due to its heroic struggle for independence that saw a quarter of its population butchered by the Indonesian military has and still elicits great sympathy from the international community. The country and its leaders should not take such generosity for granted as the great hopes that once inspired its many supporters around the world are slowly fading away. Loro Horta was the United Nations project manager for security sector reform in Timor-Leste and a senior advisor to the country’s foreign ministry. He has written extensively on Timor-Leste for over a decade.

Rebentou o escândalo em Timor-Leste

Díli, 25 fev (Lusa) - O Presidente da República timorense comparou hoje os benefícios que dirigentes do país como Xanana Gusmão e Mari Alkatiri têm dado a "familiares e amigos" com práticas do ex-ditador indonésio Suharto, numa intervenção no Parlamento Nacional. "Desde 2013, Xanana Gusmão, Mari Alkatiri, Lu-olo [Francisco Guterres, presidente da Fretilin] usam a unanimidade para quê? Não usam a unanimidade e o entendimento para resolver todos os assuntos que há por resolver. Usam-na para poder e privilégio", afirmou. "O irmão Xanana [ex-primeiro-ministro e atual ministro] toma conta de Timor, o irmão Mari [também antigo primeiro-ministro] toma conta de Oecusse. Eu fico triste. E este vírus está a espalhar-se. O príncipio básico da democracia é a confiança. Sem isso a democracia não funciona", disse Taur Matan Ruak. Intervindo a seu pedido no Parlamento Nacional, num momento de crise política em Timor-Leste, Taur Matan Ruak recordou um diálogo do início deste mês com o primeiro-ministro, Rui Maria de Araújo. "Eu lamentei que familiares e amigos do irmão Xanana e do irmão Mari tenham beneficiado tanto dos contratos do Estado. O senhor primeiro-ministro perguntou-me se eu queria fazer inspeção", disse. "Eu disse-lhe que não. Que estava apenas a falar do descontentamento que se sentia sobre os privilégios. Com o Suharto também acontecia", disse. Taur Matan Ruak falava no plenário do Parlamento Nacional, a seu pedido, numa altura em que Timor-Leste vive uma crise política em torno da decisão do Presidente da República sobre o comando das forças de Defesa (F-FDTL), que não seguiu a proposta do Governo, o qual defendia a renovação do mandato de Lere Anan Timur. A sessão, que foi transmitida em direto pela televisão nacional, a TVTL, suscitou grande atenção pública, com dezenas de pessoas, muitas em pé, a acompanhar a intervenção do chefe de Estado. /

Bissau: A falta de diálogo

Bissau, 23 Fev 16 (ANG) - O enviado da ONU para a Guiné-Bissau afirmou no sábado à Rádio das Nações Unidas ser importante estabelecer um pacto de estabilidade para resolver a crise política naquele país. Miguel Trovoada Miguel Trovoada referiu o interesse de se criarem “regras básicas de orientação e gestão” no relacionamento entre as instituições guineenses “porque é isso que está em causa” e lamentou as dificuldades de relacionamento “resultantes da má interpretação particular dos dispositivos” legais, apesar da Constituição guineense “consagrar atribuições e competência de cada órgão de soberania”. O enviado da ONU disse que na Guiné-Bissau existem órgãos de soberania, cada um com competências próprias e ligações entre si. “Como há competências partilhadas isso supõe uma conformação da vontade daqueles órgãos” que comparticipam no que se pode “chamar o executivo, embora não seja no sentido estrito da palavra, que é Governo”, referiu. Miguel Trovoada afirmou que “a situação na Guiné-Bissau tem criado bloqueios” e que “a falta de diálogo entre as instituições guineenses ” impede que se ultrapassem situações que “podiam ser resolvidas rapidamente”. “As posições radicalizaram-se, o que deu no que já se sabe, caiu o Governo resultante das últimas eleições gerais, há outro em exercício mas não há por parte das instituições um entendimento que permita o seu funcionamento normal”, concluiu o enviado da ONU. ANG/JA

São Tomé: Presidência invadida

Na manhã de segunda – feira, o Palácio do Povo, que funciona como gabinete de trabalho do Presidente da República de São Tomé e Príncipe, foi palco de um caso insólito. Um jovem conseguiu furar o sistema de segurança da Guarda Presidencial, entrou no quintal do Palácio que é vedado, e invadiu o edifício. A presença do jovem que para além de um computador, transportava passaportes e uma bíblia sagrada, só foi notada quando estava na escada que dá acesso ao salão nobre do palácio presidencial e ao Gabinete do Presidente da República. O segurança que esbarrou com o jovem na escada, disse que o cidadão manifestou interesse em falar com o Chefe de Estado. Logo de seguida o Jovem agride o segurança e penetra no salão nobre do Palácio. «Ele tentou entrar no gabinete do Presidente», declarou o segurança. Não tendo conseguido penetrar no gabinete de Pinto da Costa, o jovem foi-se instalar na sala onde o Chefe de Estado reúne o Conselho de Estado. Depois de algum confronto com o segurança, o jovem cuja documentação o identifica como, Digelson Bandeira de Sousa Pontes, acabou sendo detido. Antes disso pulverizou a sala do Conselho de Estado com um perfume cujo frasco foi exibido para as câmaras da televisão. O Téla Nón apurou que o cidadão detido foi conduzido à Polícia de Investigação Criminal. Na PIC, rapidamente o jovem foi identificado como delinquente. Digelson Bandeira de Sousa Pontes faz parte do grupo de 6 jovens estudantes do Liceu, que recentemente atacou a pedrada um cidadão na zona da Madre de Deus, com intenção de roubar os seus bens. O cidadão que foi apedrejado na cabeça contínua hospitalizado, mas os 6 jovens foram postos em liberdade condicional pelo Tribunal da Primeira Instância. Desta vez o Palácio Presidencial, que parecia ser um dos lugares mais seguros do país, foi a vítima. Nada mais parece estar seguro no país. Abel Veiga

O explosivo dossier sírio

Alger, qui n’est pas favorable à la chute du régime de Bachar Al Assad, ne voit pas d’un mauvais œil l’intervention militaire de Moscou contre l’opposition armée syrienne. Le chef de la diplomatie russe, Sergueï Lavrov, est attendu lundi prochain à Alger. Cette visite est présentée comme un «déplacement ordinaire dans un cadre bilatéral et de consultations politiques régulières» prévu depuis des semaines. Néanmoins, elle prend une ampleur dès lors qu’elle intervient dans un contexte international chargé de tensions et de désaccords entre les puissances sur les conflits régionaux. L’explosif dossier syrien et le chaos libyen sont en premier ligne du front diplomatique et militaire de Moscou. La voix de la Russie à l’international depuis onze ans, M. Lavrov, qui fait face au bloc occidental sur la crise syrienne, compte «re-mobiliser» les alliés traditionnels de la Russie dans la région. Alger, qui n’est pas favorable à la chute du régime de Bachar Al Assad, ne voit pas d’un mauvais œil l’intervention militaire de Moscou contre l’opposition armée syrienne. Une intervention qui a permis un «rééquilibrage» des forces agissantes sur le théâtre syrien. Jouant sur les contradictions et les incohérences des Occidentaux, notamment entre Paris et Washington, Poutine a réussi sa manœuvre, en se replaçant au centre du conflit et s’emploie à dicter les conditions d’un cessez-le-feu. Il a pu se rendre «indispensable» dans l’inextricable crise syrienne. Dans sa double bataille militaire et diplomatique, la Russie ne néglige aucun pays pouvant aider à renforcer sa position dans la géopolitique régionale. Les Russes savent parfaitement tout l’intérêt politique et symbolique à avoir le soutien des pays de la région, l’Egypte et l’Algérie essentiellement, pour mieux les opposer aux monarchies golfiotes qui, historiquement, se sont rangées du côté de l’Ouest. «L’œil de Moscou contre l’oreille de Washington.» Une remise au goût du jour des vieux réflexes de la guerre froide. Lavrov entend, à l’occasion de sa visite, voir se renouveler «la solidarité algérienne» sur ce dossier dans lequel le peuple syrien est pris en tenaille entre le despotisme de Bachar Al Assad et les groupes djihadistes. Alliées traditionnelles et partenaires stratégiques, l’Algérie et la Russie sont sur une même ligne. Même si sur bien des questions et du point de vue des intérêts stratégiques de l’Algérie, le régime de Poutine n’est pas un appui permanent et certain, comme en témoigne le dossier énergétique. Ou bien le Sahara occidental, où la voix de la Russie est totalement inaudible. Autre dossier non moins explosif sur lequel la Russie veut bien garder un œil, celui de la Libye. Plongé dans le chaos depuis la chute du dictateur El Gueddafi, le pays est au bord du morcellement, l’apparition des groupes terroristes inféodés à la nébuleuse Etat islamique complexifie la donne. Au jeu trouble des monarchies du Golfe, l’Arabie Saoudite en tête, s’ajoute l’absence d’une vision sérieuse des puissances occidentales qui, pourtant, ont joué un rôle déterminant dans la chute du régime d’El Gueddafi. La situation libyenne, qui va en s’aggravant, menace directement le voisinage immédiat. Le chef de la diplomatie algérienne, Ramtane Lamamra, qui s’est fortement impliqué dans la recherche d’une solution politique au bourbier libyen, ne trouve pas de soutien franc et clair des partenaires régionaux et internationaux. Les divergences d’approches sont évidentes. Opposée à une solution exclusivement militaire, l’Algérie pourra bien sensibiliser la Russie pour qu’elle puisse aller également dans cette direction. Alger comme Moscou ont en commun la doctrine «non interventionniste». Cependant, Moscou qui n’entend pas perdre sur ce dossier fait presque dans le «marquage» aux Américains. Ces derniers qui, faut-il le rappeler, ont mené des attaques contre les positions des groupes djihadistes cette semaine ont «pris de court» les principaux acteurs internationaux. Vladimir Poutine qui, depuis sa reprise en main du palais du Kremlin, s’emploie à redorer le blason de l’empire soviétique ne se laisse pas doubler par ses rivaux, essentiellement sur le théâtre des conflits. El Watan

O apoio norte-americano aos terroristas

The United States and its regional allies must withhold their financial, political and logistical support to terrorists in Syria in order for any ceasefire to be effective, an American political analyst says. Mark Dankof, a political commentator and broadcaster in San Antonio, Texas, made the remarks in an interview with Press TV on Wednesday. He was commenting on a White House statement which says US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin discussed the Syrian truce, set to begin on February 27. The comments were made after diplomatic sources said that a draft deal had been reached between Russia and the United States, calling for a ceasefire to start in Syria in late February. On Sunday, US Secretary of State John Kerry said he and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, had reached a provisional agreement on the "cessation of hostilities" in Syria, noting the sides were closer to a ceasefire than ever before. Russia will speak to the Syrian government and Iran, and the US will speak to the Syrian opposition and its partners, Kerry said. The truce would exclude two major militant groups in Syria, namely Daesh and al-Nusra Front. Dankof said the United States and its allies like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are responsible for the hundreds of thousands of deaths in Syria. “So the burden of proof it seems to me is on the United States and on Barak Obama basically to come clean of the fact of what that they have been doing since March of 2011,” he said. “It’s immoral, it’s illegal, and it resulted in somewhere between 250,000 to 470,000 deaths in that country, not to mention millions displaced which’s caused a catastrophe not only in Syria but also [created] the present migrant crisis in Europe,” he added. “This is entirely the responsibility of the West and the United States in particular, Israel in particular, and then of course Saudi Arabia and Turkey and their extremist friends in the region,” the commentator stated. “So in that context, I think Putin is engaging in a very good diplomacy here, indicating of course once again that he is willing to go extra the mile in these conversations, in these conversations,” he noted. “But it needs to be understood, from the Russian perspective that they should insist, absolutely insist that these assurances that al-Qaeda will not be a part of a ceasefire, ISIS [Daesh] will not be a part of a ceasefire, that [it] would be absolutely stringently obeyed by the other side,” he emphasized. The analyst said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is correct that “essentially it must be proven that the United States and Israel and Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Turkey are going to withhold” their financial, political and logistical support that they “have clearly been providing to these extremists since March of 2011.”

A questão do Sara Ocidental

Le secrétaire général des Nations unies, Ban Ki-moon, effectuera, le 6 mars prochain, une visite en Algérie. Ce rendez-vous a été abordé, samedi à Alger, lors de l’audience accordée par le ministre d'Etat, ministre des Affaires étrangères et de la Coopération internationale, Ramtane Lamamra, à l'envoyé personnel du secrétaire général de l'ONU pour le Sahara occidental, Christopher Ross, indique un communiqué du MAE repris par l’APS. «La question du Sahara occidental et les perspectives de son règlement ont été au centre des discussions, lesquelles ont également porté sur la préparation de la visite prévue les 6 et 7 mars prochain en Algérie du secrétaire général de l'ONU, Ban Ki-moon», selon la même source. «La situation dans la région, en Afrique et au Moyen-Orient sera passée en revue à l'occasion de cette visite. Le secrétaire général de l'ONU échangera également avec ses interlocuteurs algériens sur le terrorisme et la menace qu'il fait peser sur la paix et la sécurité internationales», ajoute le communiqué. La coopération entre l'Algérie et le système des Nations unies et les moyens de sa promotion seront également à l'ordre du jour des discussions de Ban Ki-moon à Alger. Les entretiens entre MM. Lamamra et Ross qui se sont déroulés au siège du ministère des Affaires étrangères ont été élargis par la suite aux membres des deux parties. M. Ross a entamé une tournée dans la région pour préparer la visite de Ban Ki-moon. Il s’agit de la première visite dans la région de M. Ban consacrée au conflit du Sahara occidental, alors que les Nations unies tentent sans succès depuis 1992 d'organiser un référendum d'autodétermination du peuple sahraoui. Cette annonce intervient alors que le Polisario se prépare à célébrer dans des camps de réfugiés sahraouis à Tindouf, en territoire algérien, les 40 ans de la proclamation de la République arabe sahraouie démocratique (RASD). R. N. El Watan