L’intervention occidentale est en train de créer plus de problèmes qu’elle n’en résout. Que l’on pousse Kadhafi a partir est une chose. Que l’on mette pour cela la Libye a feu et a sang et que l’on fasse le lit de l’islam intégriste en est une autre. Les 44 manoeuvres actuelles risquent fort de déstabiliser toute l’Afrique du Nord, le Sahel, le Proche-Orient, et de favoriser l’émergence d’un nouveau foyer d’islam radical, voire de terrorisme.
La coalition parviendra peut-être à éliminer le guide libyen ou à provoquer son départ. Mais l’Occident doit prendre garde qu’il ne soit pas remplacé par un régime plus radicalement anti-occidental et tout aussi peu démocratique. Il serait alors devenu son complice. Il est légitime de se demander si une telle direction n’est pas déjá choisie, lorsque l’on observe les étonnantes alliances contre-nature qui ont été conclues autour de l’affaire libyenne par Washington, pour l’unique défense de ses intérêts stratégiques. Tout laisse craindre que les Occidentaux n’aient oublié l’Afghanistan des années 1990 et, surtout, la vieille histoire de Charybde et Scylla.
Enfin, et cette considération n’est pas la moindre, il convient de poser la question de la légitimité d’une action qui vise à « déposer » un gouvernement au nom de la sacro-sainte démocratie et en oubliant que précisément les principes démocratiques imposent qu’un tel privilège n’appartienne qu’au peuple et non à l’étranger.
La communauté internationale n’est pas un super-Etat qui pourrait à sa guise chasser des gouvernements. Surtout au nom de principes qu’elle met en avant et, pour son propre compte, ne respecte pas. Et en distinguant soigneusement les coupables en fonction de leurs ressources pétrolières et non de leurs crimes, réels ou supposés.
Paris, le 30 Mai 2011 Centro Internacional de Pesquisas Sobre o Terrorismo e de Apoio às Vítimas do Terrorismo (CIRET-AVT)
parte final de um relatório que me foi facultado pelo Professor Eduardo Costa Dias e pelo Doutor Raúl F. Curvêlo, duas pessoas incansáveis na divulgação de textos sobre África e os países árabes.
CIRET-AVT a été fondé en juillet 2003 par Mesdames Anne-Marie Lizin, sénatrice de Belgique , Saida Benhabiles , ancienne ministre algérienne, et Monsieur Yves Bonnet , ancien directeur de la DST , préfet français honoraire .
26.6.11
Brasil fica na direcção-geral da FAO
El exministro brasileño de Lula Da Silva, José Graziano da Silva, será el nuevo director general de la Organización de Naciones Unidas para la Agricultura y la Alimentación (FAO), después de vencer en la segunda votación al español Miguel Ángel Moratinos por un apretado 92 a 88. Sucederá en el puesto al senegalés Jacques Diouf a partir del 1 de enero de 2012.
El brasileño, el más aplaudido durante su intervención de ayer, fue ministro de Hambre Cero en el primer Gobierno de Lula da Silva, aunque solo duró en el cargo un año. Al cabo de ese tiempo, el entonces presidente, siguiendo las recomendaciones de un estudio que afirmaba que en Brasil no había hambre sino exceso de peso y desigualdad de renta entre los ciudadanos, dio un giro a sus políticas: eliminó este Ministerio, y con él Graziano de la vida política, y creo el de Bolsa Familia, el verdadero artífice de sacar a entre 20 y 30 millones de brasileños de la pobreza.
En los últimos tres años, Lula ha rescatado la figura de José Graziano y ha promocionado su candidatura por toda África. Estos días previos a la votación, la delegación brasileña se ha empleado a fondo en Roma, con el expresidente a la cabeza. De hecho, el triunfo de Graziano se interpreta como un hito más del expresidente brasileño.
Las bazas de Moratinos eran su dilatada experiencia diplomática, su apuesta por la inclusión de la FAO entre las grandes instituciones de la gobernanza mundial y la propuesta de nuevas formas de financiación.
Los candidatos de partida eran seis: el iraquí Abdul Latif Rashid, el austriaco Franz Fischler, el indonesio Indroyono Soesilo, el iraní Mohamad Said Noori Naeini, el brasileño José Graziano y el español Moratinos. El brasileño y el español fueron los que más apoyo recibieron en la primera votación (77 votos para Graziano frente a 72 para Moratinos). Los cuatro restantes decidieron retirar su candidatura para la segunda y definitiva votación.
El País
El brasileño, el más aplaudido durante su intervención de ayer, fue ministro de Hambre Cero en el primer Gobierno de Lula da Silva, aunque solo duró en el cargo un año. Al cabo de ese tiempo, el entonces presidente, siguiendo las recomendaciones de un estudio que afirmaba que en Brasil no había hambre sino exceso de peso y desigualdad de renta entre los ciudadanos, dio un giro a sus políticas: eliminó este Ministerio, y con él Graziano de la vida política, y creo el de Bolsa Familia, el verdadero artífice de sacar a entre 20 y 30 millones de brasileños de la pobreza.
En los últimos tres años, Lula ha rescatado la figura de José Graziano y ha promocionado su candidatura por toda África. Estos días previos a la votación, la delegación brasileña se ha empleado a fondo en Roma, con el expresidente a la cabeza. De hecho, el triunfo de Graziano se interpreta como un hito más del expresidente brasileño.
Las bazas de Moratinos eran su dilatada experiencia diplomática, su apuesta por la inclusión de la FAO entre las grandes instituciones de la gobernanza mundial y la propuesta de nuevas formas de financiación.
Los candidatos de partida eran seis: el iraquí Abdul Latif Rashid, el austriaco Franz Fischler, el indonesio Indroyono Soesilo, el iraní Mohamad Said Noori Naeini, el brasileño José Graziano y el español Moratinos. El brasileño y el español fueron los que más apoyo recibieron en la primera votación (77 votos para Graziano frente a 72 para Moratinos). Los cuatro restantes decidieron retirar su candidatura para la segunda y definitiva votación.
El País
24.6.11
O que ainda falta saber sobre a Tailândia
Thailand is sliding backwards into repression – one stark indication of this is that just saying it is illegal Andre MacGregor Marshall
Thursday, 23 June 2011
I have worked 16 hours a day, without pay, on a story that is likely to be widely denounced. It is a story that has already cost me a job I loved with Reuters, after a 17-year career. Once it is published, I will be unable to return to one of my favourite countries for many years. There is a risk – small, but real – that I will face international legal action. And several people who I consider friends will be dismayed, and probably never talk to me again.
The obvious question is: why in the 21st century – this is the price that has to be paid for trying to tell the truth about an apparently modern and open country: Thailand?.
Thailand claims to be a democracy, and it is holding general elections on 3 July. It claims to be a constitutional monarchy, where the widely beloved 83-year-old King Bhumibol has no political role but provides moral guidance.
There is no doubting the affection and respect that Thais have for their king. But Thailand's tragedy is that throughout its modern history, generals and courtiers have sabotaged Thai democracy while claiming to be acting in the name of the palace.
Thailand is sliding backwards into authoritarianism and repression. And one stark indication of this is that just saying it is illegal.
Thailand has the world's harshest lèse majesté law. Any insult to Bhumibol, Queen Sirikit or their son Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, is punishable by three to 15 years in jail. Use of the law has surged, particularly since a coup in 2006. Respected academics and journalists are among those facing prison. One Thai-British professor, Giles Ungpakorn, is living in exile in London after fleeing Thailand following accusations he defamed the palace.
I arrived in Thailand in 2000, as Reuters' deputy bureau chief. I quickly fell in love with the luminous beauty of Thai culture and the warmth and joie de vivre of the people. It does not appear like a nation in the grip of repression, but things are not as they seem. The official story of a harmonious "Land of Smiles" is a fairy tale. Thailand is a country of secrets.
Many Thais have little respect for the crown prince and regard the prospect of him becoming king with dread. Queen Sirikit is deemed to be distanced from King Bhumibol and thought by some to be sympathetic to the ultra-right-wing "yellow shirts", who besieged Bangkok's airports in 2008 in an effort to topple the government. The military has consistently used the law to shield itself from critical scrutiny of its baleful role in sabotaging democracy.
Thailand's domestic media cannot report any of this, and the international media has resorted to explicit self-censorship. Journalists resort to vague hints when covering Thailand. As Pravit Rojanaphruk, one of the country's best correspondents, wrote this month: "The 'invisible hand', 'special power', 'irresistible force', all these words have been mentioned frequently lately by people, politicians and the mass media when discussing Thai politics, the upcoming general election and what may follow."
Three months ago I gained access to the "Cablegate" database of confidential US cables believed to have been downloaded by US soldier Bradley Manning in Iraq. There are more than 3,000 cables on Thailand. Unlike almost all reporting on the country, the cables do not mince words when it comes to the monarchy. As I read them I realised two things. They could revolutionise our understanding of Thailand. And there was no way I could write about them as a Reuters journalist.
Reuters employs more than 1,000 Thai staff. The risks to them were significant. In my 17 years at Reuters I've covered many conflicts; I spent two years as Baghdad bureau chief as Iraq collapsed into civil war. Several friends in the company have been killed. I've always been proud to work for Reuters. When I was told my story could never be published, I understood.
But I just could not accept giving up and ignoring the truth about Thailand. Thai people deserve the right to be fully informed, to debate their future without fear. With great regret, I resigned from Reuters at the start of June to publish my article for anybody who wants to read it.
Today, I have done that. I am now a criminal in Thailand. It is desperately sad to know that I cannot visit such a wonderful country again. But it would have been sadder still to have had the chance to tell the truth, and fail to do so. It's my duty as a journalist, and a human being, to do better than that. That's why I published my story. The Independent
Thursday, 23 June 2011
I have worked 16 hours a day, without pay, on a story that is likely to be widely denounced. It is a story that has already cost me a job I loved with Reuters, after a 17-year career. Once it is published, I will be unable to return to one of my favourite countries for many years. There is a risk – small, but real – that I will face international legal action. And several people who I consider friends will be dismayed, and probably never talk to me again.
The obvious question is: why in the 21st century – this is the price that has to be paid for trying to tell the truth about an apparently modern and open country: Thailand?.
Thailand claims to be a democracy, and it is holding general elections on 3 July. It claims to be a constitutional monarchy, where the widely beloved 83-year-old King Bhumibol has no political role but provides moral guidance.
There is no doubting the affection and respect that Thais have for their king. But Thailand's tragedy is that throughout its modern history, generals and courtiers have sabotaged Thai democracy while claiming to be acting in the name of the palace.
Thailand is sliding backwards into authoritarianism and repression. And one stark indication of this is that just saying it is illegal.
Thailand has the world's harshest lèse majesté law. Any insult to Bhumibol, Queen Sirikit or their son Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, is punishable by three to 15 years in jail. Use of the law has surged, particularly since a coup in 2006. Respected academics and journalists are among those facing prison. One Thai-British professor, Giles Ungpakorn, is living in exile in London after fleeing Thailand following accusations he defamed the palace.
I arrived in Thailand in 2000, as Reuters' deputy bureau chief. I quickly fell in love with the luminous beauty of Thai culture and the warmth and joie de vivre of the people. It does not appear like a nation in the grip of repression, but things are not as they seem. The official story of a harmonious "Land of Smiles" is a fairy tale. Thailand is a country of secrets.
Many Thais have little respect for the crown prince and regard the prospect of him becoming king with dread. Queen Sirikit is deemed to be distanced from King Bhumibol and thought by some to be sympathetic to the ultra-right-wing "yellow shirts", who besieged Bangkok's airports in 2008 in an effort to topple the government. The military has consistently used the law to shield itself from critical scrutiny of its baleful role in sabotaging democracy.
Thailand's domestic media cannot report any of this, and the international media has resorted to explicit self-censorship. Journalists resort to vague hints when covering Thailand. As Pravit Rojanaphruk, one of the country's best correspondents, wrote this month: "The 'invisible hand', 'special power', 'irresistible force', all these words have been mentioned frequently lately by people, politicians and the mass media when discussing Thai politics, the upcoming general election and what may follow."
Three months ago I gained access to the "Cablegate" database of confidential US cables believed to have been downloaded by US soldier Bradley Manning in Iraq. There are more than 3,000 cables on Thailand. Unlike almost all reporting on the country, the cables do not mince words when it comes to the monarchy. As I read them I realised two things. They could revolutionise our understanding of Thailand. And there was no way I could write about them as a Reuters journalist.
Reuters employs more than 1,000 Thai staff. The risks to them were significant. In my 17 years at Reuters I've covered many conflicts; I spent two years as Baghdad bureau chief as Iraq collapsed into civil war. Several friends in the company have been killed. I've always been proud to work for Reuters. When I was told my story could never be published, I understood.
But I just could not accept giving up and ignoring the truth about Thailand. Thai people deserve the right to be fully informed, to debate their future without fear. With great regret, I resigned from Reuters at the start of June to publish my article for anybody who wants to read it.
Today, I have done that. I am now a criminal in Thailand. It is desperately sad to know that I cannot visit such a wonderful country again. But it would have been sadder still to have had the chance to tell the truth, and fail to do so. It's my duty as a journalist, and a human being, to do better than that. That's why I published my story. The Independent
Para acabar com a ditadura na Guiné Equatorial
As the African Union meets in Malabo, a small "Colectivo" blogs in secret to tell the story of Equatorial Guinea the mainstream media ignores. Will the global wave of protests reach the oil-rich African state?
ajestream
1 day 15 hours ago
From the Colectivo's manifesto:
The Equatorial Guinean Youth Collective, we are a youth organization, born in Equatorial Guinea in secret, to organize and fight for our legitimate rights and interests, joining the youth, strengthening the youth movement.
colectivojovenesecuatoguineanos.blogspot.com
1 day 11 hours ago
[Note: All posts here from the blog have been translated from Spanish using Google Translate.]
In their call to action, the Colectivo references the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia.
We have teamed up to find the exchange of news, views and the effective support of workers and democratic organizations in the imperialist countries and mainly of Central African countries, as young people and workers who have brought down dictatorships in Tunisia and Egypt.
colectivojovenesecuatoguineanos.blogspot.com
1 day 11 hours ago
In their latest post:
The Guinean youth constitutes 63% of the population and has the ability to drag the people of Equatorial Guinea to overthrow the dictatorship.
colectivojovenesecuatoguineanos.blogspot.com
1 day 11 hours ago
It is clear that Obiang and his regime are afraid of youth, first revolutions of Tunisia, Egypt and other African countries such as Spain now have a crisis in the regime.
colectivojovenesecuatoguineanos.blogspot.com
17 hours 39 min ago
The Colectivo claims also to have been inspired by the recent youth protests in Spain against the government's austerity measures.
Thanks to Spanish television and also a few weeks after the outbreak of the revolt of young people in Spain, due to problems of light and for those who can afford to buy a satellite dish in Spain we have learned that a group of young people are demonstrating against the policies of their government peacefully, and they are doing, and here in Guinea, given our underground, we are studying how we can activate the machinery to make it work here.
colectivojovenesecuatoguineanos.blogspot.com
17 hours 35 min ago
Al Jazeera por gentileza da activista portuguesa Ana Lúcia Sá
ajestream
1 day 15 hours ago
From the Colectivo's manifesto:
The Equatorial Guinean Youth Collective, we are a youth organization, born in Equatorial Guinea in secret, to organize and fight for our legitimate rights and interests, joining the youth, strengthening the youth movement.
colectivojovenesecuatoguineanos.blogspot.com
1 day 11 hours ago
[Note: All posts here from the blog have been translated from Spanish using Google Translate.]
In their call to action, the Colectivo references the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia.
We have teamed up to find the exchange of news, views and the effective support of workers and democratic organizations in the imperialist countries and mainly of Central African countries, as young people and workers who have brought down dictatorships in Tunisia and Egypt.
colectivojovenesecuatoguineanos.blogspot.com
1 day 11 hours ago
In their latest post:
The Guinean youth constitutes 63% of the population and has the ability to drag the people of Equatorial Guinea to overthrow the dictatorship.
colectivojovenesecuatoguineanos.blogspot.com
1 day 11 hours ago
It is clear that Obiang and his regime are afraid of youth, first revolutions of Tunisia, Egypt and other African countries such as Spain now have a crisis in the regime.
colectivojovenesecuatoguineanos.blogspot.com
17 hours 39 min ago
The Colectivo claims also to have been inspired by the recent youth protests in Spain against the government's austerity measures.
Thanks to Spanish television and also a few weeks after the outbreak of the revolt of young people in Spain, due to problems of light and for those who can afford to buy a satellite dish in Spain we have learned that a group of young people are demonstrating against the policies of their government peacefully, and they are doing, and here in Guinea, given our underground, we are studying how we can activate the machinery to make it work here.
colectivojovenesecuatoguineanos.blogspot.com
17 hours 35 min ago
Al Jazeera por gentileza da activista portuguesa Ana Lúcia Sá
22.6.11
Catalães defendem uma nova Guiné Equatorial
El 20 de junio, con ocasión de la Jornada “Catalunya per Guinea. La situación dels drets humans”, se dieron cita diferentes políticos catalanes como Jordi Miralles i Àngels Tomàs (ICV-EUiA), Joan Ferran (PSC), Marc Gafarot (CiU), David Minoves (ERC), y políticos opositores guineanos de diferentes partidos (CPDS, FRECOM, MAIB, PDF, Etomba E-A Ndowe y Partido Swala Bissiô).
En la misma se dio lectura de la Resolución 90/IX del Parlament de Catalunya, aprobada por unanimidad por ICV-EUiA, ERC, PSC, CiU, PPC y SI, según la cual:
“1. El Parlamento de Cataluña expresa el apoyo al inicio de un proceso democrático en la República de Guinea Ecuatorial, que supere la dictadura de Teodoro Obiang y finalice con la represión y la vulneración de los derechos fundamentales. 2. El Parlamento de Cataluña manifiesta la conveniencia de evitar dar apoyo al régimen dictatorial y corrupto del general Obiang y traslada la misma al Congreso de los Diputados y a otras instituciones pertinentes del Estado español y de Cataluña.
3. El Parlamento de Cataluña traslada al Gobierno de Cataluña, al Gobierno del Estado español, a la Unión Europea y a otras organizaciones internacionales la necesidad de llevar a cabo las actuaciones políticas y diplomáticas pertinentes para el establecimiento de un estado democrático, de derecho y social en la República de Guinea Ecuatorial”.
Durante el acto, los representantes de seis partidos políticos guineanos, Octavio Ndongo Nsue (Convergencia para la Democracia Social), Humberto Riochi (Movimiento de Autodeterminación Pueblo Bubi), Luís Aniceto Bibang Abuy (Frente Común de la Oposición de Guinea Ecuatorial), Fameyon Salet (Partido Democrático Federal), Evaristo Oko (Etomba E-A Ndowe) y Willy M’Bande (Partido Swala Bissiô), procedieron a la firma de un Manifiesto cuyo contenido es el siguiente:
“Dadas las circunstancias políticas en la que está sumergida Guinea Ecuatorial en los últimos tiempos, los aquí reunidos exigimos:
1.
Liberar los presos políticos de forma inmediata.
2.
Permitir el regreso de los exiliados residentes en el extranjero de forma inminente.
3.
El inicio de un proceso democratizador que establezca las bases de un sistema democrático, en el que se recojan los derechos inherentes a las personas y los pueblos.
4.
Que todas las fuerzas políticas firmantes, y todas las que se adhieran en el futuro, presenten una propuesta conjunta de exigencia de reformas políticas.
Estas consignas las manifestamos expresando nuestro apoyo explícito a los opositores de Guinea Ecuatorial para que puedan ejercer su libertad de expresión y reunión de forma pacífica, lejos de la represalia a la que se están viendo abocados”.
Dicho Manifiesto firmado por los políticos opositores guineoecuatorianos, está siendo firmado también por diferentes partidos políticos catalanes como son Convergència i Unió (CiU), Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC), Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds- Esquerra Unida i Alternativa (ICV-EUiA) y Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), documento que les tramitaremos en breve.
(nota de imprensa obtida por intermédio de Ana Lúcia Sá)
En la misma se dio lectura de la Resolución 90/IX del Parlament de Catalunya, aprobada por unanimidad por ICV-EUiA, ERC, PSC, CiU, PPC y SI, según la cual:
“1. El Parlamento de Cataluña expresa el apoyo al inicio de un proceso democrático en la República de Guinea Ecuatorial, que supere la dictadura de Teodoro Obiang y finalice con la represión y la vulneración de los derechos fundamentales. 2. El Parlamento de Cataluña manifiesta la conveniencia de evitar dar apoyo al régimen dictatorial y corrupto del general Obiang y traslada la misma al Congreso de los Diputados y a otras instituciones pertinentes del Estado español y de Cataluña.
3. El Parlamento de Cataluña traslada al Gobierno de Cataluña, al Gobierno del Estado español, a la Unión Europea y a otras organizaciones internacionales la necesidad de llevar a cabo las actuaciones políticas y diplomáticas pertinentes para el establecimiento de un estado democrático, de derecho y social en la República de Guinea Ecuatorial”.
Durante el acto, los representantes de seis partidos políticos guineanos, Octavio Ndongo Nsue (Convergencia para la Democracia Social), Humberto Riochi (Movimiento de Autodeterminación Pueblo Bubi), Luís Aniceto Bibang Abuy (Frente Común de la Oposición de Guinea Ecuatorial), Fameyon Salet (Partido Democrático Federal), Evaristo Oko (Etomba E-A Ndowe) y Willy M’Bande (Partido Swala Bissiô), procedieron a la firma de un Manifiesto cuyo contenido es el siguiente:
“Dadas las circunstancias políticas en la que está sumergida Guinea Ecuatorial en los últimos tiempos, los aquí reunidos exigimos:
1.
Liberar los presos políticos de forma inmediata.
2.
Permitir el regreso de los exiliados residentes en el extranjero de forma inminente.
3.
El inicio de un proceso democratizador que establezca las bases de un sistema democrático, en el que se recojan los derechos inherentes a las personas y los pueblos.
4.
Que todas las fuerzas políticas firmantes, y todas las que se adhieran en el futuro, presenten una propuesta conjunta de exigencia de reformas políticas.
Estas consignas las manifestamos expresando nuestro apoyo explícito a los opositores de Guinea Ecuatorial para que puedan ejercer su libertad de expresión y reunión de forma pacífica, lejos de la represalia a la que se están viendo abocados”.
Dicho Manifiesto firmado por los políticos opositores guineoecuatorianos, está siendo firmado también por diferentes partidos políticos catalanes como son Convergència i Unió (CiU), Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC), Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds- Esquerra Unida i Alternativa (ICV-EUiA) y Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), documento que les tramitaremos en breve.
(nota de imprensa obtida por intermédio de Ana Lúcia Sá)
20.6.11
Ex-Presidente tunisino foi condenado à revelia
After more than 6 hours of trial,the verdict is finally out. Tunisian former president and his wife Leila Ben Ali have been sentenced in absentia to 35 years of prison. The ousted president has been found guilty of theft and misusing of state funds.
The ousted couple was sentenced by judge Touhami to pay a $66 million fine (91 Millions Tunisian Dinars) .
The trial in absentia of ousted Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali began a day after he denied all charges against him.
Mr Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia on 14 January following a popular rising.
He faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted on various charges, including corruption and drug trafficking.
His lawyers said the trial was an attempt by Tunisia's interim government to divert attention from their failure to restore stability in the country.
The Saudi authorities have yet to respond to an extradition request from Tunisia for Mr Ben Ali and his wife, Leila Trabelsi, and there seems little likelihood of them being brought to justice in person.
The ousted couple was sentenced by judge Touhami to pay a $66 million fine (91 Millions Tunisian Dinars) .
The trial in absentia of ousted Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali began a day after he denied all charges against him.
Mr Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia on 14 January following a popular rising.
He faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted on various charges, including corruption and drug trafficking.
His lawyers said the trial was an attempt by Tunisia's interim government to divert attention from their failure to restore stability in the country.
The Saudi authorities have yet to respond to an extradition request from Tunisia for Mr Ben Ali and his wife, Leila Trabelsi, and there seems little likelihood of them being brought to justice in person.
18.6.11
Burkina: Compaoré resistiu ao motim de Abril
Blaise Compaore is still the President of Burkina Faso despite an army mutiny and riots that sent him fleeing from Ouagadougou for few weeks.
Some analysts predicted that revolts rocking the Arab World would take place in the landlocked West African nation. They believed Compaore would be the next longtime African dictator to fall after Ben Ali of Tunisia and Hosein Mubarak of Egypt.
The premise was that the people-power wave had a contagious effect and that it was catching onto other parts of the continent. The unrest in Bukrina Faso, however, seems to have subsided and Compaore clings on to his over two-and-half-decade-long power.
In another landlocked East African country President Yoweri Museveni was being sworn in at Entebbe for the fifth time to extend his rule of Uganda to three decades by 2016.The opposition leaders and members of the public were being sprayed with canon water in Kampala in a violent attempt by the Ugandan forces to chase protesters away from the streets.
Few expected Museveni's iron grip rein in Uganda would suddenly fall. But the excessive force the police and army applied against the "Walk-to-Work" demonstrators would not prevent Mubarak from being toppled in Egypt.
This raises a question whether the Arab World spring that started in North Africa is ready for Sub-Saharan Africa.
The significance of this question lies in the number of sub-Saharan African countries with all elements that attract mass revolts in the Arab World.
Significant elements in the North African revolts include long term patrimonial dictatorships - whereby nepotism and corruption had become part of the state culture; wide spread poverty and unemployment; and a large youth population. Over 60 per cent of the population in Uganda is under 18 years of age.
Historically both Museveni and Compaore are a group of leaders, who came to power in military coups in 1980s. They both promised wholesale changes, but the pledges have with time become empty words. As the people of North Africa rose against their dictators, analysts thought many other African countries would follow suit, but the prediction is yet to be seen.
A political scientist John Harbeson of the City University in New York wrote in Sunday Nation: "One of the reasons why uprising may not cross to sub-Saharan Africa is regular elections, which are missing in North Africa."
Nkwabi Ng'wanakilala, who lectures Current Affair at St Augustine University of Tanzania, believes this is partly true.
"There are fundamental differences between the Arab World and sub-Saharan Africa that make the North African mass revolts less likely to cross to the later."
Basically Sub-Saharan dictators have taken some steps to enhance democracy, while families seem to have monopoly of power in the Arab World.It is easier for the masses to rally against a family rather than groups of people ruling parties, which have lost direction, in sub-Saharan Africa.
The ruling party used to have an ideologue guiding it in Tanzania, but since the Zanzibar Declaration, the ruling party does not have any useful ideologue, enabling every Dick and Tom with dirty money to lead it. Opposition parties are more or less built along the same lines. Fifty per cent of all eligible voters didn't vote in the last General Election mainly because they could never differentiate them.
It will take time for people to realise that there is no difference among the ruling elite and to resort to class struggles.Such a scenario already has started at North Mara where five people were recently shot dead by the police allegedly for invading the mine.
Another factor, according to Ng'awakilala, is less declined tribalism in the Arab world compared to Sub-Saharan Africa. It is easier for the Arabs to team up than is the case with black Africans, who still embrace ethnic groups.
A political analyst Anna James says another factor that is the former colonial regimes, which still determine the balance of power in Sub-Saharan Africa.
"The French support for Alassane Quatara was decisive against Laurent Gbagbo. The French influence in former colonies of west and central Africa is an important factor any dictator needs to remain in power."
Copyright © 2011 The Citizen. Tanzania
Some analysts predicted that revolts rocking the Arab World would take place in the landlocked West African nation. They believed Compaore would be the next longtime African dictator to fall after Ben Ali of Tunisia and Hosein Mubarak of Egypt.
The premise was that the people-power wave had a contagious effect and that it was catching onto other parts of the continent. The unrest in Bukrina Faso, however, seems to have subsided and Compaore clings on to his over two-and-half-decade-long power.
In another landlocked East African country President Yoweri Museveni was being sworn in at Entebbe for the fifth time to extend his rule of Uganda to three decades by 2016.The opposition leaders and members of the public were being sprayed with canon water in Kampala in a violent attempt by the Ugandan forces to chase protesters away from the streets.
Few expected Museveni's iron grip rein in Uganda would suddenly fall. But the excessive force the police and army applied against the "Walk-to-Work" demonstrators would not prevent Mubarak from being toppled in Egypt.
This raises a question whether the Arab World spring that started in North Africa is ready for Sub-Saharan Africa.
The significance of this question lies in the number of sub-Saharan African countries with all elements that attract mass revolts in the Arab World.
Significant elements in the North African revolts include long term patrimonial dictatorships - whereby nepotism and corruption had become part of the state culture; wide spread poverty and unemployment; and a large youth population. Over 60 per cent of the population in Uganda is under 18 years of age.
Historically both Museveni and Compaore are a group of leaders, who came to power in military coups in 1980s. They both promised wholesale changes, but the pledges have with time become empty words. As the people of North Africa rose against their dictators, analysts thought many other African countries would follow suit, but the prediction is yet to be seen.
A political scientist John Harbeson of the City University in New York wrote in Sunday Nation: "One of the reasons why uprising may not cross to sub-Saharan Africa is regular elections, which are missing in North Africa."
Nkwabi Ng'wanakilala, who lectures Current Affair at St Augustine University of Tanzania, believes this is partly true.
"There are fundamental differences between the Arab World and sub-Saharan Africa that make the North African mass revolts less likely to cross to the later."
Basically Sub-Saharan dictators have taken some steps to enhance democracy, while families seem to have monopoly of power in the Arab World.It is easier for the masses to rally against a family rather than groups of people ruling parties, which have lost direction, in sub-Saharan Africa.
The ruling party used to have an ideologue guiding it in Tanzania, but since the Zanzibar Declaration, the ruling party does not have any useful ideologue, enabling every Dick and Tom with dirty money to lead it. Opposition parties are more or less built along the same lines. Fifty per cent of all eligible voters didn't vote in the last General Election mainly because they could never differentiate them.
It will take time for people to realise that there is no difference among the ruling elite and to resort to class struggles.Such a scenario already has started at North Mara where five people were recently shot dead by the police allegedly for invading the mine.
Another factor, according to Ng'awakilala, is less declined tribalism in the Arab world compared to Sub-Saharan Africa. It is easier for the Arabs to team up than is the case with black Africans, who still embrace ethnic groups.
A political analyst Anna James says another factor that is the former colonial regimes, which still determine the balance of power in Sub-Saharan Africa.
"The French support for Alassane Quatara was decisive against Laurent Gbagbo. The French influence in former colonies of west and central Africa is an important factor any dictator needs to remain in power."
Copyright © 2011 The Citizen. Tanzania
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