Apoio aos Rohingya

An agreement on May 20th between the governments of Indonesia and Malaysia granting temporary asylum to thousands of Rohingya Muslims fleeing persecution in Myanmar, averts, for now, a humanitarian disaster on the high seas. It was also a welcome sign of regional co-operation at a time when climate change and religious intolerance threaten to displace millions of Asia's most vulnerable. However, it is unlikely to herald a sea-change in attitude, given a preference among regional governments for not interfering in each other's affairs. The agreement followed a meeting between the foreign ministers of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur, to discuss how to respond to the crisis. In comments to the media, Malaysia's foreign minister, Anifah Zahid Aman, said that Malaysia and Indonesia would provide temporary asylum for upwards of 7,000 refugees, comprising Rohingya as well as economic migrants from Bangladesh, thought to be stranded on the Andaman Sea. Indonesia's vice-president, Jusuf Kalla, said that his country would take in refugees for up to a year, assuming that the rest of the world pitches in to help with resettlement or repatriation. Promises of financial assistance have since followed from the US and UN agencies. Poor, sickly and isolated The agreement represents a temporary solution to a problem that shows few signs of going away. Some 1.2m Rohingya, a Muslim minority, are thought still to be in Myanmar's southern states of Rakhine and Arakan, where they suffer from persecution by local Buddhist nationalists eager to drive them out. More than 100,000 are thought to have fled since 2012. Their exodus would amount to the biggest humanitarian crisis facing the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) since the end of the Vietnam war. Then, roughly 1m refugees fled the country and poured onto boats in the South China Sea. In the decades since then, attitudes towards immigration have hardened considerably. Rich countries closely aligned to the US took in Vietnamese by the thousands. But no country has expressed interest in taking in Rohingya. This is because the Rohingya are among some of the world's most oppressed people. Poor, sickly and isolated in camps in Myanmar and Bangladesh, they receive little education or healthcare. Their prospects for a speedy assimilation into different societies are slim. Against this backdrop, it is all the more commendable that Indonesia and Malaysia, which are not signatories to all the Geneva Convention protocols, have stepped up at all. Both countries, alongside Thailand, have long looked the other way as Rohingya filtered via sea and land to melt into their Muslim populations and work as cheap labour. Governments had every incentive to maintain a hard line on refugees. Indeed, patrol boats from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand routinely nudged craft with Rohingya migrants back out to sea with packets of instant noodles, water and cursory training on how to navigate their flimsy vessels, to which their smugglers had long abandoned them. Policy shift The shift in policy signalled by the agreement reflects, in part, a surprising outpouring of sympathy among coastal populations. Some 1,300 Rohingya refugees are thought to have been rescued by fishermen from the Indonesian provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). Images of bewildered migrants sheltering in local mosques have flooded national television and local Islamic political parties have demanded a response from the government. The sudden onslaught of refugees provides an opportunity, too, for Indonesia to improve its recently battered international image. Since assuming office in October 2014, the administration led by the president, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi), has sunk scores of what it says are illegal foreign fishing boats caught operating in its waters. In late April firing squads put to death eight drug felons, seven of them foreign nationals, prompting international condemnation. The stance taken over the migrants allows the government to recapture some of the moral high ground. Australia has said that it will not offer to resettle any of the migrants, although the US has indicated that it will consider doing so. To interfere or not The crisis has exposed anew the limitations of ASEAN, which at the end of 2015 will begin dropping tariffs and barriers on goods and services to create the single-market ASEAN Economic Community. Populated with communist, military and otherwise authoritarian regimes, ASEAN members have been reluctant to point the finger at Myanmar for its failure to prevent the persecution of Rohingya, given the halting steps the country has made towards representational democracy. The plight of the Rohingya was left off the agenda of the 2014 ASEAN Summit, which was held in Myanmar. The failure to pressurise the Burmese government into action has arguably stirred up a bigger crisis, which is now spilling out over Myanmar's borders. There will be calls to soften the principle of non-interference that has long guided ASEAN, given the possible costs of inaction. An adviser to Mr Kalla has publicly criticised the stance of Myanmar's government on the issue. The need to co-ordinate more effectively is all the more pressing given the probability of future migrant crises. Ecology is a potential flashpoint. Delta populations face displacement in the event of extreme flooding brought on by climate change. Of the more than 20m displaced people in each of the last few years, 80% were in Asia, the UNHCR has said. A joint approach would be the best way to respond to these challenges, even though this might necessitate some incursion on issues traditionally regarded as matters of national sovereignty. An ASEAN meeting on May 29th in Thailand's capital, Bangkok, will offer some clues as to whether the recent crisis will prompt member states to adopt a bold, co-ordinated approach. However, such hopes may not be realised. Malaysia and Indonesia have stressed that their offer of asylum is a temporary one, while Thailand has refused to go beyond a commitment not to push migrant vessels outside its territorial waters. Moreover, non-interference remains a foundational principal for ASEAN, where nationalism runs deep. Many governments in the region grapple with their own internal political, religious and social problems, and would be reluctant to set a precedent by chastising Myanmar. ASEAN may be integrating economically, but the notion of a regional political community is an idea whose time has not yet come.