Bissau: O arrastar da crise

A power struggle is raging within the ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). The internal division has led to a dangerous political standoff between supporters and opponents of the current government, headed by PM Carlos Correia. Meanwhile, rumours are circulating in the country about an impending coup d’état. The country has been in turmoil since President José Mário Vaz fired PM Domingos Simões Pereira in August 2015, placing the head of state at loggerheads with his own PAIGC. President Vaz replaced Pereira with his favourite candidate for the post of prime minister, Baciro Djá. However, PM Djá needed to hand in his resignation after the Supreme Court ruled his appointment violated the constitution. The judges said that PM Djá had been given the job without properly consulting the political parties in parliament. Correia was appointed prime minister on 17 September 2015. The root cause of the growing political instability is a bitter friction between warring factions within the ruling PAIGC party. Supporters of President Vaz, like former PM Djá, want Pereira to resign as party leader. Their protest against Correia’s government in which Pereira serves as vice-prime minister led to the parliament’s rejection of the 2016 budget. Indeed, parliament failed to pass the 2016 budget because 15 PAIGC deputies abstained from voting. The PAIGC then decided to expel the 15 dissenters from parliament, replace them with disciplined members, and seek parliamentary approval for the 2016 budget once again. Meanwhile, rumours about an impending coup d’état were circulating in the capital city Bissau. When the 2016 budget was presented for approval again in January 2016, the 15 PAIGC deputies refused to leave parliament. Their protest action made speaker Cipriano Cassamá decide to adjourn the vote. In the absence of the speaker and most PAIGC deputies, the leader of Guinea-Bissau’s largest opposition Party for Social Renewal (PRS) Alberto Nambea declared himself speaker and three resolutions were adopted: a censure motion against the government, the reinstatement of the 15 deputies in parliament, and the dismissal of Pereira and Cassamá from the PAIGC. To date, President Vaz has not ratified the resolutions. Parliament passed the 2016 budget on 28 January. Yet, it is unclear if the budget law is valid. The court recently ruled that the dismissal of the PAIGC deputies was unconstitutional. Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo has led efforts by the 15-nation ECOWAS regional bloc to resolve the crisis. Yet, prominent members of the PAIGC refuse to talk with PRS and the 15 dissenters. This attitude may indicate that the PAIGC is trying to force new parliamentary elections, allowing the party to remove undisciplined members from the party list. To be sure, such a move would strengthen the PAIGC’s position vis-à-vis the president. For its part, PRS and the 15 dissenters are pressing for the prime minister’s resignation. Yet, Correia’s resignation would only prolong the prime ministerial merry-go-round. The political crisis may encourage the all-too-powerful military to restore decision-making authority. Since the first multiparty elections in 1994, Guinea-Bissau has experienced two coups d’état, an attempted coup, and a presidential assassination by the military.