Preocupação crescente com o pós-Khadafi

Declaring victory after six months of war, the new regime in Tripoli has rejuvenated the Arab Spring and may promote political change further south
With its victory over the forces of Moammar el Gadaffi this week, the Transitional National Council (TNC) has proved it has more staying power than suggested by its initial hesitant appearance at the head of the insurrection. Now it enters a more perilous period, trying to manage its disparate supporters, launching a complex political transition and dealing with residual military support for the Gadaffi regime.
The biggest threat is that the collapse of the Jamahiriya may leave a power vacuum in both Libya and the region or, certainly, more room for well-armed insurrectionists to undermine the new Tripoli regime and post-revolutionary regimes in Egypt and Tunisia. Governments in Algeria, Mauritania and Morocco – the three North African states whose regimes have not been overthrown yet – watch Libya with growing concern. Gadaffi’s fall has rejuvenated the Arab Spring and will strengthen oppositionists in Algiers, Nouakchott and Rabat.

Africa Confidencial


Fezzan, feudo tradicional dos Kadhafa

Kadhafi est le plus jeune enfant d'une famille de Bédouins du clan des Ghous, qui appartient à la tribu des Kadhafa (al-Kadhafi n'est pas un patronyme mais un nom d'usage signifiant de la tribu des Kadhafa). Il grandit dans la région désertique de Syrte et reçoit une éducation primaire traditionnelle et religieuse. De 1956 à 1961, il suit les cours de l'école préparatoire de Sebha dans le Fezzan, fief traditionnel de sa tribu où il forme le noyau d'un groupe de militants révolutionnaires ayant pour but de s'emparer du pouvoir inspiré du général égyptien Gamal Abdel Nasser, en prônant l'unité arabe. En 1961, il est exclu de l'école préparatoire de Sebha à cause de son activisme politique.
---- Enquanto tanta gente olha para Sirte, não poderá acontecer que o coronel Kadafhi esteja muito mais para os lados das vastas terras de Fezzan, nas franjas setentrionais do Sara? É uma hipótese, a que se tem dado pouca atenção.


Do Império Garamantino ao Reino da Líbia

Chronology of Libyan History [Source: the Pages of Miftah Shamali]

The oldest accounts of Libya is connected to Pheonician colonies established in first half of the last millennium BC.

6th century BC: Phoenician ports of Libya conquered by Carthage.

5th century BC: Rise of the Garamantian Empire in today's Fezzan.

107 BC: North-western Libya conquered by Rome, and comes under administration of Africa Proconsularis, which has its administrative centre around Carthage. The region becomes later a province of its own, under the name Tripolitania.

74 BC: Cyrenaica conquered by Rome. Further Roman advances south is halted by the Garamantians. The region is later named Libya, where today's north-eastern Libya is called Libya Superior, while today's north-western Egypt is called Libya Inferior.

455 AD: Vandals take possession of Libya.

643: Amr Ibnu l-As conquers north-eastern Libya, known as Barka, and the region becomes part of the new Muslim Empire, governed from Madina in today's Saudi Arabia.

647: Tripolitania is conquered by the Arabs.

1146: Tripolitania and Cyrenaica is conquered by the Normans of Sicily.

1521: Barka is incorporated in the Ottoman Empire, but control remains in the hands of local rulers.

1551: Tripolitania becomes vassal state under the Ottoman Empire.

1711: Rise of the Karamanli dynasty, which served to protect the corsair activity centred to Tripoli, and strongly irritating European powers. Still, trade between Libya and Europe thrives. Much of this trade was with slaves, destined for the American continent.

1835: As the Karamanli dynasty had become increasingly less popular, due to economical inefficiency and abolishing of corsair activity and slave trade, the Ottoman sultan has his nominal representative removed from power in Tripoli.

1842: Fezzan comes under nominal Ottoman control.

1843: Muhammad Ibn Ali s-Sanussiy, leader of a increasingly powerful religious movement, chooses Cyrenaica as his seat. The Sanussiy movement becomes important all over Libya.

1911: Italian invasion, and a battle over control of Libya starts. The Sanussiys become the leaders of Libyan resistance.

1912: The Ottoman Empire renounces its claim over Libya.

1929: Tripolitania and Cyrenaica is united under Italian rule.

1931: End of the Italian colonisation of Libya, when the Sanussiys give in.

1943: With the fall of the Axis powers in the World War II, Great Britain and France divides Libya: Tripolitania and Cyrenaica comes under British control. Fezzan comes under French control.

1949: Cyrenaica becomes independent emirate, with Emir Sayyid Idris Sanussiy as leader.
November 21: United Nations grants independence for a united Libya, within the span of 2 years.

1950: A national assembly convenes in Tripoli. Emir Idris is designated king of the coming kingdom.

1951: October 7: Promulgation of the new constitution of Libya.
December 24: King Idris declares the independence of the United Kingdom of Libya.

1952: February: Elections held for parliament.

1953: Libya enters the Arab League.
December 7: Great Britain obtains rights on having military bases for a period of 20 years.


Roteiro para os meses a seguir a Kadhafi

Western governments have helped prepare a blueprint for a post-Gaddafi Libya that would retain much of the regime's security infrastructure to avoid an Iraq-style collapse into anarchy.
The 70-page plan, obtained by London's The Times, charts the first months after the fall of the Gaddafi regime. The document was drawn up by the National Transition Council in Benghazi with Western help.
Officials say the blueprint draws on lessons from the disastrous regime change in Iraq in 2003 and the rebel takeover in eastern Libya in March.
The plans are highly reliant on the defection of parts of the Gaddafi security apparatus to the rebels after his overthrow. This is likely to prove not only risky, but controversial, with many rebel fighters determined to sweep away all vestiges of the regime.
The document includes proposals for a 10,000-15,000 strong "Tripoli task force", resourced and supported by the United Arab Emirates, to take over the Libyan capital, secure key sites and arrest high-level Gaddafi supporters.
It claims 800 serving Gaddafi government security officials have been recruited covertly to the rebel cause and are ready to form the "backbone" of a new security apparatus.
The blueprint contains plans for about 5000 police officers now serving in units not ideologically committed to the Gaddafi regime to be transferred immediately to the interim government's forces to prevent a security vacuum.
The documents claim that the rebel groups in Tripoli and surrounding areas have 8660 supporters, including 3255 in the Gaddafi army.
A mass defection by high-ranking officials is considered highly likely, with 70 per cent of them judged to support the regime out of fear alone.
The authors of the report also believe the escalation of NATO attacks to an "unbearable" level is a strong possibility.
The NTC in Benghazi confirmed the authenticity of the planning documents, but asked that The Times withhold details that could endanger rebel supporters working in Tripoli.
The rebel government's ambassador to the UAE and the head of the planning cell for the task force, Aref Ali Nayed, expressed regret the document had been leaked. But he said: "It is important that the general public (in Libya) knows there is an advance plan, and it is now a much more advanced plan."
The document shows detailed planning for key security, telecommunications, power and transport infrastructure - as well as for the country's famous classical ruins - to be secured in the hours after the regime's collapse.
Rebel leaders express concern in the document that Tripoli's population should not feel they are being "invaded" by troops from eastern Libya. Significantly, there are no plans to deploy rebel forces from the east in Tripoli. Instead "sections of Nafusa Mountain and Zentan freedom fighters" from the west would be moved to the capital and media messages would stress that there is "no external imposition on Tripolitanians". Most of Tripoli's interim security force would come from the city.
An internationally backed one-month program for the emergency supply of $US550 million ($532m) of gas and petrol to western Libya would begin immediately after the regime's fall in an effort to restore normal life.
There is also a UN-supported program to deliver immediate humanitarian aid, including bottled water, by land, sea and air, with support from key Muslim countries such as the UAE, Qatar and Turkey.
In the first minutes after the announcement that Gaddafi is no longer in control, a pre-recorded program of announcements by rebel leaders and clerics would initiate the Tripoli task force plan, call for calm and warn against revenge attacks on regime supporters. An FM radio station has already been prepared for the purpose in a nearby country. In the event of Gaddafi being killed or deposed, "strategic communications" planning suggests the NTC and its Western backers would be prepared to negotiate with his sons or what are described as "regime captains".
A series of lessons learnt from the takeover in Benghazi warns against the creation of multiple rebel groups in Tripoli and calls for a "clear plan to deal with a hostile fifth column".
Global Research Articles by Tom Coghlan / The Australian


Jorge Carlos Fonseca novo Presidente de Cabo Verde

Praia, 22 Agosto – Várias centenas de apoiantes de Jorge Carlos Fonseca saudaram, esta noite, em frente à sede de campanha a vitória do candidato apoiado pelo MpD, pela vitória nas presidenciais de domingo em Cabo Verde. Entre vivas e abraços, “Zona” teve de ser conduzido por um forte dispositivo de segurança para fazer o seu discurso de vitória na segunda volta destas eleições.
"Respeito o Governo legítimo de Cabo Verde”, disse Fonseca, acrescentando que o relacionamento com José Maria Neves, o Chefe do Governo, “será normal”.
Mas antes, o próximo Presidente da República de Cabo Verde, o quarto e terceiro eleito democraticamente, fez questão de saudar o povo cabo-verdiano, que, nas ilhas e nas comunidades no exterior, lhe ofereceu esta vitória eleitoral e que o elegeu como Chefe de Estado, afirmando que irá procurar merecer a confiança que lhe foi dada hoje nas urnas”.
Jorge Carlos Fonseca aproveitou ainda para tranquilizar os cabo-verdianos, garantindo que cumprirá “escrupulosamente, o compromisso" de ser "um presidente que exercerá de facto uma magistratura activa no plano político e moral na sociedade cabo-verdiana", sem prescindir "em caso algum, dos poderes que a Constituição confere ao Presidente da República”.
De acordo com o novo Presidente “ser eleito Presidente de Cabo Verde, no actual contexto e com tantos desafios que vivemos actualmente, impõe uma enorme responsabilidade sobre os ombros”. E uma delas tem a ver com a democracia cabo-verdiana. "Eu, como Presidente da República, darei o meu contributo para que a democracia seja cada vez mais moderna e mais avançada”.


Chávez nacionalizou indústria venezuelana do ouro

Chávez anunció ayer que el decreto para nacionalizar esta industria estará listo en los próximos días e hizo un llamamiento a los militares para que controlen el sector. "Tengo aquí las leyes que permiten al Estado explotar el oro y todas las actividades relacionadas con él... Vamos a nacionalizar el oro y vamos a transformarlo, junto con otros elementos, en reservas internacionales, porque su valor continúa creciendo", dijo el presidente venezolano ayer en una llamada telefónica difundida por televisión.
La decisión se produce en un momento en el que el precio del oro marca máximos históricos. El incremento de la demanda de los inversores por este metal, al que acuden para cubrirse ante el incremento de la volatilidad y las turbulencias en los mercados de renta variable -Bolsas- y renta fija -deuda-, ha impulsado su precio hasta un nuevo récord.
Además, el anuncio de Chávez coincide con una información difundida por un diputado de la oposición, que revela que los máximos responsables de finanzas del país recomiendan al presidente la repatriación del 90% de las reservas de oro que Venezuela tiene en el extranjero. El Gobierno no ha comentado nada sobre este asunto, pero Chávez dijo en su mensaje de ayer: "Hemos logrado incrementar las reservas internacionales. Tenemos entre 12.000 y 13.000 millones de dólares en reservas de oro. No podemos permitir que continúen en bancos extranjeros".
El País


Fraquíssimo Sudão do Sul quer ajudar a Somália

South Sudan has offered to send African Union troops to Somalia to back the weak interim government.
South Sudan, which became independent on 9 July, made the offer on the day it joined the African Union (AU).
The AU has 9,000 troops in Somalia, but it says it needs up to 20,000 soldiers to repel the Islamist group, al-Shabab.
Deng Alor Kuol, South Sudan's foreign affairs minister, said the new state was prepared to bolster the force to show its commitment to peace in Africa.
"It is part of our responsibility to help our Somali brothers and sisters to achieve peace," he told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme.
"We, as Africans, must be in the lead to alleviate problems before we ask the Western world, or anyone else, to come and help us."

Modern army?

Offering troops to international peacekeeping missions can be a good way of earning foreign currency for some countries.
The BBC's James Copnall in Sudan's capital, Khartoum, says an estimated 180,000 former rebel and militia fighters now make up South Sudan's army.
But he says there is a lot of work to be done to change the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) into a disciplined modern army and human rights groups often accuse its soldiers of abuses.
Somalia has been without an effective central government since the fall of the Siad Barre regime in 1991, while a famine has gripped parts of the country since June.
Al-Shabab - which is fighting for Islamic rule and has links to al-Qaeda - controls large swathes of south and central Somalia - including regions worst affected by the drought.
Earlier this month, it said its forces were making a tactical retreat from the capital, Mogadishu.
Afterwards, the AU force commander in Somalia, Maj Gen Fred Mugisha, appealed for an immediate deployment of 3,000 extra troops.
Last year, the UN Security Council approved a 12,000-strong AU force for Somalia, although the AU said it needed 20,000 troops.
Several African countries, including Nigeria and Malawi, have failed to fulfil promises to send troops because they fear being dragged into the long-running conflict.
All the current troops are from Uganda and Burundi.

Militares israelitas têm demasiado poder

It’s time to slash Israel's military budget

By Nehemia Shtrasler, Haaretz

All of Barak’s talk about social sensitivity is only deception. He is demanding an addition to his budget, when he knows very well that without a deep cut in defense, it will be impossible to respond to even a small part of the tent protest.
I almost stopped breathing when I heard the words of MK Shaul Mofaz ‏(Kadima‏), chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee: “We have to open the defense budget already today, and to cut back. Don’t let them threaten us, because I won’t panic.”
What courage, what power!
And Mofaz continued: “Channeling budgets to social welfare is a strategic move that is as important as any ambitious and pretentious project of the defense establishment. We have to spread out and streamline the project. We have to transfer the Israel Defense Forces to the outlying areas,” he said, striking out mercilessly at the sacred defense cow.
But the moment I recovered and resumed breathing as usual, I recalled that Mofaz was once chief of staff and then defense minister too. During those not so distant days, he used to speak in the cabinet about “the poverty and the gaps that are destroying society,” but demand additional funds for the IDF in the very same breath. “You’re experts at harming the weak,” he would say to the officials at the Finance Ministry, and immediately thereafter demand another NIS 1.5 billion for the army, arguing that if it were not paid immediately, the IDF would be unable to defend the Jewish people. How frightening!
At the time, Mofaz would invite a large group of senior officers, including the chief of staff, to the cabinet sessions, and they would describe the surrounding threats to the ministers, with the aid of sophisticated PowerPoint presentations showing frightening red arrows directed straight into the heart of the country. The stunned ministers would quake with fear, and the prime minister would ponder the next commission of inquiry − and they would all approve the additional funds.
And it made no difference that Israel’s strategic situation had actually improved at the time, with the eastern front against it having collapsed when Iraq fell, and America a presence in the heart of the Arab world.
This is precisely the tactic of incumbent Defense Minister Ehud Barak. On the one hand, he talks about the importance of the social protest and about the fact that his Atzmaut Party “was formed with the precise purpose of dealing with social injustices.” Interesting; we actually thought it was formed in order to provide jobs for several party hacks. And then, in the very same breath, he goes on to say, “We have to remember that we aren’t living in Switzerland. Look what’s happening around us in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, Bahrain and Iran.” In other words, the scare tactics continue.


A fome nos Estados Unidos

Près de 46 millions d'Américains, soit 15 % de la population, vivait en avril 2011 grâce à des bons alimentaires, a indiqué vendredi 5 août le ministère de l'agriculture des Etats-Unis. Ce chiffre record a augmenté de 2,5 % entre mai 2010 et avril 2011.
Les Etats où les allocataires sont les plus nombreux sont le Texas (3,9 millions), la Californie (3,7 millions), la Floride (3 millions) et New York (3 millions). L'Alabama, Etat du Sud, a pour sa part doublé le nombre de ses allocataires, passant de 800 000 à plus de 1,7 million. Ce bond spectaculaire est dû en grande partie, selon un responsable du ministère, à la série de tornades qui a touché fin avril cet Etat, faisant 210 morts, plus de 1 700 blessés et des destructions massives.
Les bons alimentaires, qui font partie du programme SNAP d'assistance supplémentaire à l'alimentation, peuvent être demandés sous conditions, en fonction notamment d'un plafond mensuel de ressources selon la taille de la famille. Pour une famille de quatre personnes, ce plafond est fixé à 2 389 dollars. Le montant moyen de cette allocation est de 300 dollars. Les bons peuvent être échangés en supermarché contre des produits alimentaires, mais pas contre des sandwichs, des produits traiteurs ou de l'alcool.
Le Monde

Empréstimo a um rei absoluto e polígamo

South Africa has agreed to a R2.4bn ($370m) bail-out loan for neighbouring Swaziland, Africa’s last absolute monarchy which has been struggling with an economic crisis and growing social unrest.
The small kingdom has been plagued by financial problems after revenue from the Southern African Customs Union, which had accounted for about 60 per cent of the government’s revenue, collapsed in 2010 and 2011.
The economic crisis, coupled with calls for greater democracy, triggered unprecedented protests against the rule of King Mswati III earlier this year.
Pravin Gordhan, South Africa’s finance minister, said the first tranche of the loan would be disbursed this month. He said that some conditions would be attached to the loan, including Swaziland’s government taking “confidence building measures” such as the promotion of democracy and human rights; and implementing fiscal reforms required by the International Monetary Fund.
“It’s not in our interest to have an economy in trouble that could place a burden on the South African government,” Mr Gordhan said.
Swazi activists and the Congress of South African Trade Unions, a key member of South Africa’s governing alliance, have repeatedly insisted that any South African aid to its neighbour should be tied to political reforms.
The Swaziland Solidarity Network, a dissident group based in South Africa, described the loan as a “betrayal of the people”, Reuters reported.
In April, security forces beat protesters and used tear gas and water cannons to quash pro-democracy demonstrations. Activists complain that King Mswati, who has at least a dozen wives, enjoys a lavish lifestyle and runs his country of about 1m people as a fiefdom while many ordinary people struggle with poverty and unemployment.
Dimpho Motsamai, a researcher at the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies, said that unless the conditions were detailed and followed up, the loan would a “band aid solution”.
She said regional powers needed to push King Mswati to implement serious political reforms if the causes of Swaziland’s problems were to be addressed.
Financial Times

A pior crise financeira desde a II Guerra Mundial

It is nearly four years since the day, 9 August 2007, which for many of us marks the start of the credit crunch - that in turn precipitated both the worst global banking crisis and recession for at least 70 years.
Banks and financial investors lost confidence that they could any longer value the trillions of dollars of financial products - asset backed securities, collateralised debt obligations - manufactured out of housing loans, especially poor-quality subprime housing loans.
So banks like Northern Rock and HBOS could no longer finance themselves by selling such financial products, which led directly to their respective collapses. And banks in general found it increasingly difficult to raise money, because of a generalised panic that their respective balance sheets were stuffed to the gunnels with near worthless assets.
When banks can't borrow, they can't lend. When businesses and households find it hard to borrow, an economic slowdown is the consequence. So over the subsequent nine months, credit crunch led to recession - which became acute in the autumn of 2008, when financial markets seized up altogether after the failure of Lehman (though all through the summer and early autumn of 2008, there was a steady erosion of confidence in the integrity of the financial system, especially after the collapse of the US state-backed housing-finance providers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).
Today's financial crisis can be traced directly to those momentous events.
The response of governments around the world to the financial crisis and recession was to keep or even increase public spending, at a time of falling tax revenues, to compensate for the collapse of household consumption and private-sector investment.
In other words, they ran abnormally high public sector deficits - peaking at deficits in the UK, US and parts of the eurozone at 10% or more of GDP - to prevent a global recession becoming a global depression.
Robert Peston/BBC