Preocupação crescente com o pós-Khadafi

Declaring victory after six months of war, the new regime in Tripoli has rejuvenated the Arab Spring and may promote political change further south
With its victory over the forces of Moammar el Gadaffi this week, the Transitional National Council (TNC) has proved it has more staying power than suggested by its initial hesitant appearance at the head of the insurrection. Now it enters a more perilous period, trying to manage its disparate supporters, launching a complex political transition and dealing with residual military support for the Gadaffi regime.
The biggest threat is that the collapse of the Jamahiriya may leave a power vacuum in both Libya and the region or, certainly, more room for well-armed insurrectionists to undermine the new Tripoli regime and post-revolutionary regimes in Egypt and Tunisia. Governments in Algeria, Mauritania and Morocco – the three North African states whose regimes have not been overthrown yet – watch Libya with growing concern. Gadaffi’s fall has rejuvenated the Arab Spring and will strengthen oppositionists in Algiers, Nouakchott and Rabat.

Africa Confidencial