15.9.13

Síria: Recuo estratégico de Obama

US President Barack Obama has warned of "consequences" if the Syrian regime fails to comply with a framework deal to destroy its chemical weapons. A framework document agreed by the US and Russia on Saturday stipulates that Syria must provide full details of its stockpile within a week. The chemical arsenal must then be eliminated by mid-2014. If Syria fails to comply, the deal could be enforced by a UN resolution with the use of force as a last resort. But US officials say the president reserves the right to act without the agreement of the UN. China, France, the UK, the UN and Nato have all expressed satisfaction at the agreement. In Beijing, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Sunday that China the deal "will enable tensions in Syria to be eased". There has so far been no reaction from Damascus. Mr Obama said in a statement that the deal was an "important step" but urged Syria to "live up to its public commitments". "If diplomacy fails, the United States remains prepared to act," he said. The Pentagon said the US military was still in position for military strikes. The US says the Syrian regime killed hundreds in a poison-gas attack in eastern Damascus on 21 August. President Bashar al-Assad's government denies the allegations and has accused the rebels of carrying out the attack. Syria recently agreed to join the global Chemical Weapons Convention, and the UN said it would come under the treaty from 14 October. The framework deal was unveiled by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry in a news conference in Geneva. Mr Kerry outlined a timetable that analysts said was extremely ambitious. It envisages Syria providing a full inventory of its chemical weapons in one week, all production equipment being destroyed by November, and all weapons being removed from Syria or destroyed by mid-2014. Both men confirmed that a UN resolution could be sought under Chapter VII of the UN charter, which allows for the use of force, if Syria fails to comply. However the Russian foreign minister said force remained a last-ditch option. "Naturally, no use of force is mentioned in these agreed approaches. Nor are any automatic sanctions mentioned. Any violations must be convincingly and unambiguously proven in the UN Security Council," he said. ---- Russia has significant leverage over the regime in Damascus, as it supplies its weapons. Perhaps more importantly, Russia has been watching President Assad's back at the United Nations. It seems likely that the Russians will already have had some sort of promise of co-operation from the Assad regime. The timescale of work to be done is ambitious. But a logical assumption is that the chemical stockpiles and factories are in territory held by the regime. If so, it means access depends on President Assad's orders, not on the progress of the war. The Free Syria Army, the loose coalition of armed rebels that has been hoping for Western help to fight the Assad regime, has rejected the agreement. Less than a week ago the FSA believed that the Americans were about to launch a military attack, which it hoped would tip the balance of the war its way. Now it believes that the Americans have been sidetracked. Whether or not chemical weapons are destroyed is not the point. The FSA want the Americans to destroy the regime's military power, and the US agreement with Russia means the chances of that happening are receding. ------- De 25 de Agosto a 15 de Setembro avançou-se muito no sentido de evitar, para já, o agravamento do conflito na Síria. Os apelos ao bom senso foram ouvidos e o Presidente Obama teve de retroceder, pois com ele só tinha o seu homólogo francês.

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