Sudão do Sul: catástrofe iminente

Sudan's president has sacked his entire cabinet in what analysts have warned is the climax of a ruthless power struggle inside the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement that could turn into "a full-blown catastrophe". Those fired by Salva Kiir include his chief political rival, vice-president Riek Machar, and Pagan Amum, the SPLM's secretary-general and the country's senior negotiator in crucial oil and security talks with Sudan, who has also publicly criticised Kiir's leadership. The collapse of the government raised the prospect of escalating violence in the world's youngest country, which gained independence from Sudan two years ago this month. Kiir's popularity has suffered from a perceived failure to end high poverty rates, lack of infrastructure, internal repression, and widespread official corruption. With Kiir giving no indication when a new government may be formed, sources in the capital Juba suggested a prolonged standoff between the president and his opponents that could split the SPLM into two or more rival camps, raise tensions between the powerful Dinka and Nuer tribal groups, and wreck plans for elections in 2015. The UN and aid agencies warned last week that up to 120,000 people have been displaced by fighting between the army, rebels and rival tribes in eastern Jonglei state. South Sudan is also embroiled in several border disputes with Sudan and other neighbours. A Juba-based analyst who asked not to be identified said: "The international community must urgently ensure this crisis does not spiral into a full-blown catastrophe. They must appeal for calm and demand President Kiir respect the constitution and uphold democracy. "This is a crisis that has been looming for months, if not years. The international community – and particularly South Sudan's strongest backers in the US and Europe – have done a great disservice to the people of the new country by ignoring the signs, allowing the corruption, poor governance, and political repression at the root of yesterday's events go unchecked for so long. "[The crisis] threatens not just the country and its people, but also the fragile relationship between South Sudan and Sudan." Edmund Yakani of the independent Community Empowerment for Progress Organisation (Cepo) in Juba said Kiir's actions reflected deeper problems. "This is the indicator of a power struggle within the ruling party. Dismissal of the vice-president, party secretary-general [and] the national ministers and their deputies is indicator of political instability in the system." The Guardian