Aviso de tempestade para África

Economic gloom in Europe and North America will slow African growth next year and may spark more challenges to incumbent regimes


For many African countries, the West’s economic travails will translate into spiralling food and fuel prices, higher unemployment and less state spending on education and health. The rumbling Eurozone crisis and the United States’ debt-burdened economy will not necessarily divert Africa from its more positive growth path but may slow its rate of progress, given its direct and indirect (via China) dependence on trade with the industrialised West (see Chart).

The West’s slowdown has pulled back growth in China and India – and with it demand for African exports. That could prove a dangerous combination for some authoritarian regimes, already shakier as North Africa’s revolutions resonate across the continent. With over 30 parliamentary and presidential elections due in 2012, savvier opposition parties will hope to capitalise on tougher social and economic conditions. Inflation and interest rates are spiralling across East Africa: inflation hit 33% in Uganda and 17% in Kenya in September.
AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL