África 2012: um ano a seguir

Africa Confidential begins 2012 with a special 16-page edition forecasting the most significant developments in the coming year in a dozen of Africa’s most important – or most volatile – nations. Our correspondents have searched out the key elements driving political and economic change in the coming twelve months. From some surprisingly negative consequences of the new Kenyan constitution, to an unexpectedly strong bounceback for the Ivorian economy, the way forward is by no means obvious. Nor is the political ‘Spring’ exclusively ‘Arab’; its effects are still spreading southward and proselytising the democratic message.
Early this year, a vigorous election in Senegal may well topple the Wade dynasty, while in Mali a three-cornered fight for the succession to Ahmed Toumani Touré should crown a series of peaceful transitions. Sierra Leone and Ghana go to the polls later in 2012 in what promise to be fair fights, but the coming Angolan poll presages no more than a rubber stamp of the MPLA’s ascendancy. Claims of fraud in the re-election of President Joseph Kabila in Congo-Kinshasa in December will keep pro-democracy activists busy.
Gambia and Congo-Brazzaville will hold questionable elections largely ignored by the African Union, Commonwealth and La Francophonie. In Kenya and Zimbabwe, the polls will involve hard struggles over crucial issues. Whether fixed, flawed, or honest across the board, voter choice is starting to embed itself as the main agent of change.