9.1.12

Uma África em efervescência

Stronger economies, better education and technology are driving more political change and unrest.
Expect turbulence. As well as sound advice from pilots to passengers on aircraft taking off from Kisangani to Kinshasa in Congo-Kinshasa, such warnings look apposite for the year ahead in Africa. There are no signs that the pace of political and economic change on the continent will slacken. The reverse looks true with more than 30 presidential and parliamentary elections over the next 12 months, and rising social unrest of four of the biggest economies: Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa and Kenya.
There are few direct causal links between the revolutions that have transformed North Africa in the past year, but there are plenty of important indirect effects. The biggest of these is the demonstration effect: the overthrow of leaders such as Hosni Mubarak, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali and Moammar el Gadaffi has reinforced the determination of Africans to oust autocratic and incompetent regimes.That means more youthful activism: 70% of Africans are under 30 years of age and are far less tolerant of rampant inequality and state abuse of power than their parents were. They are quicker to join up events and mobilise: Egyptians and Libyans were inspired by the courage of the Tunisian revolutionaries. Tahrir Square has come to signify dissent across Africa. Even the United States-launched ‘Occupy’ movement has prompted solidarity demonstrations in Lagos and Johannesburg.

Africa Confidential

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