A Líbia está a recuperar da crise de 2011

Thanks to a rapid resumption of hydrocarbon production and exports, Libya’s economy recovered in 2012 from a severe contraction experienced in 2011, with real GDP growth 95.5% in 2012 against a contraction of 59.7% in 2011; inflation decelerated to 6.9% in 2012 from 15.9% 2011, and GDP growth is projected to normalise to 15% and 8.1% by 2013 and 2014, respectively, while inflation is expected to decline further to 4.7% in 2013 and 3.4% in 2014. The peaceful conduct of elections in July 2012 was a promising indication of Libya’s successful political transition, but the subsequent difficulties in forming a new government have highlighted the challenges of achieving stability. Libya’s successful transition and sustainable development hinges on the evolving security situation, the new government’s economic strategy, the resolution of regional tensions over hydrocarbon resources, and the international price of oil. Overview Libya’s economic activity began to recover in 2012 thanks to the nearly full resumption of oil production by September 2012, an increase in construction and infrastructure activity, and the prospects of reduced political instability. The political volatilities surrounding the transfer of power from the transitional government to a more permanent governance structure, together with an increase in domestic security incidents affecting the army and civilians, however, have acted as obstacles to a smooth recovery and delayed long-term economic planning. By September 2012, Libya’s oil production had nearly reached its pre-revolution levels of 1.6 million barrels per day (BPD). The 344% increase in the hydrocarbon component of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 was the main driver behind the high GDP growth (95.5%) in 2012. Although non-hydrocarbon economic activity was growing fast before the conflict, it still accounts for no more than 22% of GDP and a negligible part of total exports. Non-hydrocarbon economic activities were affected adversely by the war due to the destruction of infrastructure and production facilities, disruptions to banking activity, limited access to foreign exchange and the departure of expatriate workers. However, this component is expected to recover by 2014, driven mainly by reconstruction. The major long-term challenge facing the economy is to contain the dependence on oil revenues, particularly in light of the slowdown in international demand, and the urgent need for economic diversification in order to address the long-term financial and economic stability and Libya’s unemployment challenge. Despite its large contribution to the GDP, the oil and gas sector contributes to less than 2% of total employment (according to the latest data from 2007). Despite the increase in hydrocarbon revenues, the increase in domestic demand and high expenditure on subsidies and public-sector wages pose fiscal pressures on the government. Sustainable management of Libya’s petroleum resources is a major challenge facing the new Libyan leadership. The management of domestic oil operations, co-ordination of the fast-growing inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the petroleum sector, and containing the political and regional tensions over distribution of oil revenues are major variables determining the sustainable management of the petroleum sector. African Economic Outlook, do Banco Africano de Desenvolvimento