A robusta economia moçambicana

The Mozambican economy maintained its robust performance in 2012 with a real GDP growth of 7.4%. The progressive increase in coal production, the implementation of large infrastructure projects, coupled with credit expansion are expected to continue to drive growth to 8.5% in 2013 and 8% in 2014. In the face of declining external aid flows, government efforts to address the poor infrastructure and expand social safety nets will require strengthening the institutional framework to increase revenue collection, properly manage debt levels and improve investment planning. Despite more than a decade of sustained high economic growth, Mozambique’s economy did not undergo any significant structural change, limiting its capacity to sustainably reduce poverty and foster human development, still one of the lowest in the world. Overview Mozambique continued its robust economic performance in 2012. The real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate increased by 0.1% from 2011 to 2012. It was driven by larger than expected coal production, which contributed 0.8% to the GDP growth rate. The continuation of sizable foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, increased coal production, credit expansion to the private sector and strong infrastructure investment are expected to drive growth to 8.5% and 8.0% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. An ambitious infrastructure programme, coupled with the expansion of social safety nets will pressure public finances. The continued negative trend in foreign aid flows will further stress the fiscal balance. The fiscal deficit is expected to worsen from 8.2% in 2012, to 9.2% and 9.5% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The government plans to rely on private financing and public-private partnerships to finance infrastructure development; however, an enhanced institutional framework is needed to assure accountability and scrutiny for the plans to add economic value. Inflation reached historical lows of 2.7% in 2012, thus, providing room for the central bank to maintain its expansionary monetary stance – begun at the end of 2011 – that targets credit expansion. The financing of local private enterprises is essential to assuring jobs, economic diversification and ownership of the development process. Despite its strong and sustained past economic growth, the Mozambican economy has undergone minimal structural transformation. Its productive base remains dependent largely on natural resources, which are concentrated in a few megaprojects, specifically coal, gas and aluminium. These megaprojects resulted in large FDI inflows, which have driven economic growth but not had a significant impact on government revenues, employment creation and economic diversification. Weak human capital, the high cost of credit, deficient infrastructure and burdensome regulations have slowed the diversification of the economic structure. According to the World Bank, the emerging extractive industry could provide the means for Mozambique to reach the status of a middle-income country by 2025. Large future public and private investments in extractive industries are expected to transform the deficient infrastructure. The likely improvement in the business environment may trigger a diversification of economic activities, which is imperative to sustainable economic growth, as increased activity in resource-rich regions, such as Tete province, is likely to exert significant pressure on local communities. The recent offshore gas discoveries, estimated at 150 trillion cubic feet (tcf), are one of the largest known gas reserves. According to sector experts, their commercial exploitation is unlikely before 2019 due to the large investments required in production and transport infrastructure. However, the projected increase in world capacity of gas production combined with technological developments could threaten the economic viability of the gas reserves in the medium term.