A "Primavera" egípcia prejudicou a economia

Economic growth has softened, the fiscal and balance-of-payments deficits have deteriorated, and foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a critical minimum level. Two years after the Arab Spring uprising, Egyptians – many of whom are living below the poverty line – are still waiting to reap the full benefits of lasting social, political and economic change. Egypt has potential both for structural transformation towards a more productive economy and for optimal use of its immense resource wealth, provided that vital policy reforms are introduced. Overview After toppling Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, Egyptians celebrated the election of Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi on 24 June 2012, as the country’s first democratically elected president. A new constitution, drafted by an Islamist-dominated assembly and narrowly approved in mid-December 2012 by voters, has dramatically divided the country. A new parliament is expected to be in place later in 2013, following elections starting in April to replace the Islamist-dominated body that was dissolved by the Supreme Constitutional Court in June 2012. As Egyptians wait to complete the transition to democratic government, they still face a number of challenges. The real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fell to 2.2% in the fiscal year ending June 2012, down from 5.1% in 2009/10, before the revolution. Continued political instability has undermined inflows from tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI). Economic growth is expected to remain depressed, at about 2% as of June 2013. Delay in agreement about USD 4.8 billion in financing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which would be subject to conditions to increase taxes and reform subsidies and public employment, has pushed Egypt to the verge of a full-blown currency crisis. By end-January 2013, the Egyptian pound (EGP) had depreciated by over 12.5% of its value since the uprising. The market expects the pound to depreciate further, to between EGP 7 and EGP 7.50 to the US dollar, and a black foreign exchange market is emerging. In June 2012, Egypt’s domestic debt and fiscal deficit reached 80.3% and 10.8% of GDP respectively, narrowing the room for fiscal manoeuvre. Poverty remains high, with 25.2% of the population living on less than USD 1.5 per day in 2010/11. The illiteracy rate is high at 27%, and there are wide income disparities. The Egyptian statistical agency reported that unemployment was 12.5% in the third quarter of 2012, although several sources indicate that the unemployment rate may actually be above 18%. Over 3.3 million Egyptians are unemployed, while the unemployment rate for 20- to 24-year-olds is 46.4%. The government is working to address several of the structural and institutional problems that beset Egypt. It has developed a home-grown programme to reform the inefficient energy subsidy system and is promoting policies to fight corruption, foster societal inclusion and enhance equality of opportunity. However, the government’s reluctance to accept the IMF conditions before the elections of April 2013 reflects the difficulty of implementing necessary but unpopular entitlement reforms in a heavily divided society. -- African Economic Outlook