Tuesday (15 July) sees the election of the new President of the European Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker does not quite have his feet under the desk yet, but the ‘grand coalition’ that held for Martin Schulz’s election as President of the European Parliament is expected to hold and see Juncker made President-elect.
And then, on Wednesday, the rest of the pieces of the top jobs jigsaw are expected to be put into place.
The European Council, denied a backroom deal over the Commission presidency, can (more or less) get back to old ways with its selection of a new President of the European Council and a new High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (although the choice for the latter position is one for leaders to take with the President-elect). A new permanent president for the Eurogroup (finance ministers of eurozone countries) is also expected to be named.
Striking a balance
The fact that the nominations will be made away from the public glare does not dramatically simplify the task. Herman Van Rompuy knows he will have to oversee a careful balancing act – or more likely, solve a political Rubik’s Cube – before the nominees can be paraded before the media (or tweeted about).
Political allegiance, gender, north-south balance and east-west balance, and even age, are among the key points on Herman’s checklist. And with two men approaching sixty years old from towns less than 200km apart already in situ, there is some rebalancing to be done. So how will it all play out?
Centre-right leaders hold a numerical advantage in the European Council, and in the European Parliament, strengthening their negotiating hand in the discussions over the top jobs.
The European People’s Party has already said that it wants the European Council presidency – the other top-tier job along with the Commission presidency – and wants the Eurogroup presidency, too.
This would leave the Socialists with the High Representative job, and the European Parliament presidency, which is more-than-ever a ‘top job’ given its role in negotiations (particularly in Germany) over Juncker’s nomination.
The Socialists, however, will probably feel that given their strength in the European Council (ten leaders at present) and their support for Juncker, they deserve the European Council presidency, judging the Parliament presidency and the High Representative job small reward for their part in the ‘grand coalition’.
And what of the Liberals? The Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, has been touted as a possible European Council President, and this could be a reward (albeit a large one) for providing extra stability to the grand coalition.
But it is the EPP that holds the best cards to take the European Council presidency: they have more seats at the table, and (if all goes as planned) will have already secured the Commission job by the time of Wednesday’s summit. They can afford to play hardball if necessary.
The European People’s Party has already said that it wants the European Council presidency – the other top-tier job along with the Commission presidency – and wants the Eurogroup presidency, too.
This would leave the Socialists with the High Representative job, and the European Parliament presidency, which is more-than-ever a ‘top job’ given its role in negotiations (particularly in Germany) over Juncker’s nomination.
The Socialists, however, will probably feel that given their strength in the European Council (ten leaders at present) and their support for Juncker, they deserve the European Council presidency, judging the Parliament presidency and the High Representative job small reward for their part in the ‘grand coalition’.
And what of the Liberals? The Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, has been touted as a possible European Council President, and this could be a reward (albeit a large one) for providing extra stability to the grand coalition.
But it is the EPP that holds the best cards to take the European Council presidency: they have more seats at the table, and (if all goes as planned) will have already secured the Commission job by the time of Wednesday’s summit. They can afford to play hardball if necessary.
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